Is Modi big enough for Bihar?

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s remarkable success in the recent Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, without the prop of any alliance partner, has shifted the focus on Bihar now. Among other things, it has raised a question mark over the continuation of its pre-poll pact with its partners — Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Rashtriya Lok Samata Dal (RLSD) — in the state.

The BJP parted ways with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Haryana Janhit Party in Haryana and decided to go it alone due to a seat sharing dispute before the polls. Since its gamble paid off, it has set off speculation in political circles over its likely stand on allies in the run-up to the Bihar Assembly elections scheduled to be held next year.

The party, on its part, has made it clear that it has no plans to sever ties with its existing allies in Bihar.

Senior BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi, in fact, has already gone on record saying the party will contest the next polls in alliance with the LJP and RLSD, headed by Union ministers Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha, respectively. He said the Maharashtra and Haryana situation would not arise in Bihar. But nothing can be said for sure, for now. As a matter of fact, the BJP may have to face demanding allies ahead of the Assembly polls.

The party had given ten seats in Bihar (25 per cent of the state’s 40 Lok Sabha seats) to the LJP and the RLSD in the general elections held earlier this year. Going by the same seat sharing formula, it will have to leave approximately 60 out of the 243 assembly seats for its two allies. But the moot point is: will its state allies accept the same formula now?

After all, Paswan is not known for being accommodating when it comes to seat sharing. When his party was in alliance with Lalu Prasad’s RJD, he used to get 75 Assembly seats to contest. He is not likely to be happy if he is offered only about 40-45 seats by the BJP under the Lok Sabha election formula.

Similar may be the case with Kushwaha, who would certainly like to get more than 18-20 seats. After the by-elections to the 10 Assembly seats in Bihar this year, Kushwaha had openly expressed resentment that his party had been offered no seat at all. He had gone to the extent of saying that the results of the by-polls would have been different had his party not been left out. The by-election results, which gave a setback to the BJP, will surely have raised the aspirations of both its allies for a greater number of seats.

The BJP’s problem is that going solo is fraught with a grave risk. Unlike Maharashtra and Haryana, where a multi-cornered contest helped the party, it is likely to be pitted against a united coalition of the RJD, JD(U) and the Congress in Bihar. The outcome of the bypolls has brightened the chances that the grand alliance will put up a united fight once again against the BJP in the Assembly polls.

In case the BJP decides to part ways with its allies, the LJP and the RLSD may not mind joining the grand coalition either. However, given the caste arithmetic of Bihar politics, the BJP is not likely to do anything to pave the way for such a scenario.

It is, therefore, entirely in the interest of the BJP to retain its allies for the next Assembly polls. Paswan and Kushwaha may not have been dominant forces in the state in recent years but they could still play a crucial part in fulfilling the BJP’s long cherished dreams to win Bihar for the first time ever as the primary party in a coalition.

However, victory will not be easy. Going up against the combined strength of Lalu and Nitish will test the Narendra Modi wave to the hilt. But buoyed by their recent victories, the party is starting to believe that anything is possible.