J&K poll: BJP to have vision statement, not manifesto

Even as the first phase of the five phase polling begins for elections to Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP has decided to not release a manifesto for elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Instead, it will issue a vision statement. This will allow it to steer clear of the Article 370 issue. For BJP, the removal of Article 370 has long been an article of faith. It is something their icon Syama Prasad Mookerjee argued for as well. End to the special provision which he felt led to the Balkanisation of India was one of his key planks. In fact, the founder of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (which he did after quitting Congress) launched a satyagraha to remove Article 370. He was arrested when he went to Kashmir in 1953 and died under arrest in circumstances which have never been fully explained, and which former prime minister Atal Bihar Vajpayee called a Nehru conspiracy as late as 2004. 

Even Constituent Assembly debates indicate that Article 370 was not indicated as a permanent measure. So why is the BJP willing to sacrifice it?

1) The BJP realises going soft on Article 370 can help it gain traction with "'soft separatists"' or "moderates"' such as Sajjad Lone and Hina Bhat. By extending a hand to Lone, it can continue to attack the dynasties of Abdullahs and Sayeeds, conveniently forgetting Lone's father was an inluential Hurriyat leader and both his brother Bilal and sister Shabnam are in politics. Sajjad of the People's Conference is contesting from the family stronghold of Kupwara and met "'older brother"' Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi earlier this month. As for Hina Bhat, BJP's candidate in Amira Kadal, she has publicly stated she will take up a gun to defend Article 370 if she has to.

2) The BJP realises the Hindu vote in Kashmir is not numerically significant. Look at the number of registered Kashmiri Hindu voters in the first round of voting: a mere 3,441 in the five Assembly segments going to the polls in the Valley in the first of five phases. Certainly not enough to make a difference.

3) The BJP realises that each of the three regions requires a different approach. For the 37 seats in Jammu region, it will rely on the Hindu majority, Buddhist dominated Ladakh contributes four seats, but it's in Kashmir Valley, with 46 seats, that BJP strategy will really be tested. With practically no base there, BJP hopes evading Article 370 will give it some traction. Its best performance in Jammu and Kashmir so far has been in 2008, with 11 seats in the 87-member Assembly. But it won Lok Sabha seats in Jammu region as well as Ladakh, with leads in 27 of 41 assembly segments.

4)  The BJP strategy is being crafted on the ground by former RSS spokesperson Ram Madhav who is unfamiliar with either the language or the ways of Kashmiris.

5) The BJP is also unfamiliar with the extent of following among the people of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference. They are keeping a low profile right now and observing the enviroment closely. Even if they boycott elections, they will ensure tactical voting to sway votes wherever needed in what is likely to be low winning margin contests. The party thinks keeping quiet on Article 370 makes strategic sense in the short term.

Just a reminder on what their main leadership had said about Article 370 before the elections:

Narendra Modi on Art 370, December 2013, while addressing a rally in Kashmir

"Irrespective of whether it remains a part of the Indian Constitution or not, the time has come for at least a debate to find whether Article 370 has benefited the common man in Jammu and Kashmir. This is the need of the hour. The Congress has unfortunately obfuscated this issue with the rhetoric of secularism to the extent where it is hard to count its merits and demerits."

"Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has lately scolded us, saying the BJP leaders were uselessly referring to the big names and they had no will to act. We would just remind him one thing about Nehru: He [Nehru] had said that Article 370 would get worn out with the passage of time and die. We ask Manmohan Singhji, why doesn’t his government act on Nehru’s wish [to repeal the law]."

Arun Jaitley on Art 370, December 2013, on Facebook

"Should a provision like Article 35A, which exists only because of Article 370 have place in any civilized society? Being citizens of India, they are discriminated against. They cannot vote or contest elections of the assembly, municipality or panchayats in the state. They cannot get a job in the state. They cannot acquire property in the state. Their children are not entitled to admission to colleges as state subjects. They are not entitled to any scholarship or other state side. Article 35A of the Constitution executively inserted pursuant to Article 370(1) (d) excludes the provision of ‘this part’ of the Constitution; "this part"of the Constitution refers to "Part III"."

Rajnath Singh on Art 370, April 2014, in an Interview

"Our stand is that because of this (Article 370), Jammu and Kashmir has not benefited at all. Had it benefited, had it helped in reduction of poverty, then we would welcome it. But this has not happened."