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Assembly polls results: How December 11 can decide the political future of Uttar Pradesh - and our next government

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Sharat Pradhan
Sharat PradhanDec 10, 2018 | 09:53

Assembly polls results: How December 11 can decide the political future of Uttar Pradesh - and our next government

A mahagathbandhan formed around a resurgent Congress can be very different from the floppy efforts we have seen so far.

December 11 — result day for the five states that recently went to polls — will not just give new governments to these states, but will also go a long way in determining the fate of the much-talked about ‘mahagathbandhan’ (grand alliance), and its ability to fight the mighty BJP in the 2019 General Elections. 

Most crucial in this respect will be the results of the three Hindi-belt states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where the BJP and the Congress are in a direct contest.

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If the BJP were to lose in even two of these states, it will herald the revival of the Congress. And that is bound to have a ripple effect in states like Uttar Pradesh for the big battle of 2019.

Can this bonhomie last till 2019? December 11 results will go a long way in deciding.
Can this bonhomie last till 2019? December 11 results will go a long way in deciding. (Photo: PTI/file)

At present, the Congress stands reduced to pretty much a pygmy status, with even smaller parties showing a condescending attitude to it. This amply came to fore in the run-up to the elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) decided not to have any truck with the Congress unless they got their pound of flesh.

What the two UP-based parties were demanding was a lion’s share of seats in the three states, in return for an alliance in UP later in 2019. However, despite much pressure, Rahul Gandhi sensibly refused to accept the deal, and chose to go it alone. Accepting the SP and the BSP’s terms would have meant giving away a chunk of seats to these partners, who are of very little consequence in any of the three states.   

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If the exit polls undertaken on December 7 are any indicator, it appears that the BJP will really need a miracle to retain power in any of these states. The party has been in power for 15 years in Madhya Pradesh, 10 years in Chhattisgarh and for five years in Rajasthan.

Of the three incumbent CMs, Chouhan and Singh remain popular.
Of the three incumbent CMs, Chouhan and Singh remain popular. (Photo: India Today)

Ironically, anti-incumbency is stated to be the highest in Rajasthan, where the party was in power for only one term. But people of the state seem to be completely disillusioned with Chief Minister Vasundhra Raje, who made herself inaccessible to the extent that even her own party leaders found it difficult to get her audience. 

On the contrary, both MP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Chhattisgarh’s Raman Singh continue to enjoy considerable personal popularity. In these states, apparently it is farmers’ distress that is likely to cost the BJP dear.   

Interestingly, in Rajasthan, BJP chief Amit Shah, during a long campaign, went to the extent of saying: “Vasundhara Raje brought a lot of development to Rajasthan, but she failed to publicise her good work”. This clearly reflected that the ruling party was conceding defeat well before the polling on December 7. Perhaps as a last-ditch effort, even Prime Minister Modi pitched in to address rallies in Rajasthan, but it would be far-fetched to assume that this can turn the party’s fate at the eleventh hour.   

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Probably the first indication that BJP had given up on Rajasthan came from Amit Shah himself.
Probably the first indication that BJP had given up on Rajasthan came from Amit Shah himself. (Photo: PTI/file)

If the actual results on December 11 do go the exit poll way, the Congress will be back with a bang. A party that was not being taken seriously by the likes of the SP and the BSP will suddenly become a shining rallying point for the Opposition alliance for 2019.  

In Uttar Pradesh, if the SP, BSP and a resurgent Congress do join hands, the BJP will find it difficult to win even half of the record number of seats it bagged in 2014. A Narendra Modi-led BJP had swept as many as 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in what remains the country’s most populous — and therefore, politically most crucial — state. A sharp drop in the number of Lok Sabha seats from UP in 2019 would well jeopardise Modi’s smooth return to power.

The BJP’s numbers in the Lok Sabha will also be dented in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, if the Congress manages to wrest power from it in the Assembly polls.

For now, all eyes are set on December 11, when the EVMs reveal their verdict.

Last updated: December 10, 2018 | 16:04
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