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How Nitish-Lalu split is a green signal for Modi in Bihar

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Giridhar Jha
Giridhar JhaJun 03, 2015 | 13:13

How Nitish-Lalu split is a green signal for Modi in Bihar

Going by the rapidly changing political developments, Bihar appears to be heading for a triangular contest in the upcoming Assembly elections. The prospects of a direct contest between the Janata Parivar and the Bharatiya Janata Party is getting bleaker by the day with chief minister Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) president Lalu Prasad unable to reach an understanding on the leadership issue and seat-sharing formula.

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The RJD president Lalu Prasad wants everybody in the secular alliance to make sacrifices for the collective fight against the Bharatiya Janata Party but he himself does not seem ready to cede much to the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)].

In fact, his party wants the 2014 Lok Sabha election results to be the benchmark for distribution of seats between the allies, which Nitish cannot accept without causing detriment to the JD(U)'s prospects.

The JD(U) had won or come second in less than 40 Assembly segments in the last parliamentary polls. It, therefore, wants the 2010 Assembly poll outcome - when JD(U)and RJD had won 115 and 22 seats respectively - to be the seat-sharing yardstick. This has caused a deadlock, which may well seal the fate of their alliance.

In anticipation of such a probability, Nitish and Lalu seem to be bracing for their split. They appear to have chalked out a "Plan B" for their respective parties if their alliance fails to materialise after the Janata Parivar merger fiasco.

The JD(U) has already received support from the state Congress, which wants Nitish to lead the secular alliance. This is, of course, an indication of the fact that the Congress will dump Lalu for Nitish if it has to choose between the two leaders.

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Lalu is trying his best to woo former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi who is not averse to the idea of joining hands with him if the RJD snaps ties with Nitish. Lalu will, of course, hope for making up for the loss of the votes of his existing ally - the Congress - by roping in Manjhi who enjoys considerable support among the Mahadalits. The former chief minister had launched a plethora of sops for his community during his eventful nine-month-long tenure.

Amid all pre-poll uncertainties nowadays, it is Manjhi who is having the best of both worlds. Apart from Lalu, the BJP is also looking up to him as a potential ally. The saffron party would like Manjhi to either join the National Democratic Alliance or contest the polls on his own under the banner of his newly-floated party, Hindustani Awam Morcha with its tacit backing. The BJP apparently hopes that he will cut into the vote banks of the BJP's main opponents such as Nitish and Lalu in either way.

The BJP will have something to worry about only if Manjhi joins forces with Lalu and helps add the Mahadalit votes to the RJD's traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote bank. Still, the saffron party will definitely prefer a Lalu-Manjhi alliance to the Lalu-Nitish alliance for obvious reasons.

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Recent opinion polls have suggested that an alliance between the JD(U), the RJD and the Congress will win the polls comfortably but the BJP stands a good chance to grab power if the votes of its formidable opponents split in Bihar. Thankfully for the BJP, it seems as of now that Lalu and Nitish are not able to mend their fences despite immense benefits to both to them. Even if they stitch up new alliances with different partners, they will only harm their prospects if they choose to go their separate ways.

Last updated: June 03, 2015 | 13:13
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