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Bihar polls: Don't write off the Third Front just yet

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Giridhar Jha
Giridhar JhaSep 28, 2015 | 17:44

Bihar polls: Don't write off the Third Front just yet

The upcoming Assembly election in Bihar is expected to be a needle contest between the National Democratic Alliance and the grand alliance consisting of the Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress. But other smaller claimants to the power are already threatening to emerge as the proverbial game spoilers in the poll battle. The recent formation of the Third Front-led by Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party has added a new dimension to the election. Consisting of the six new and old outfits, the front has been dismissed as mere "votekatwa (vote spoiler)" by the major parties in the state. But it would be premature to assume that its presence will not impact the final outcome of the polls.

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It is true that none of the six parties - the SP, Nationalist Congress Party, Jan Adhikar Party, Samajwadi Janata Dal, Samras Samaj Party and the National People's Party - had won any seat in the 2010 elections.

Except the SP and the NCP, other parties of the front were either non-existent at that time or had refrained from entering the fray. In fact, the SP had failed to win even a single seat despite fielding 146 candidates. It is because of the disastrous performance of these parties in the past, the NDA or the grand alliance has not yet taken the Third Front seriously.

The scenario may well be different this time, though. In the previous Assembly polls, the NDA - led by Nitish at that time - had a massive mandate which had made not only the smaller outfits such as the SP and NCP but also bigger parties like the RJD, Congress and Lok Janshakti Party (an erstwhile ally of Lalu Prasad) redundant.

But now, the contest is likely to be tougher. None of the opinion polls on the state election has so far given any alliance a landslide victory. As a matter of fact, a majority of them has predicted a neck-and-neck battle. This is precisely what makes the Third Front and other smaller parties relevant in this election.

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Unlike the parliamentary elections, the Assembly polls are often decided by small margins of votes. Even a difference of 1,000-1,500 votes changes the fate of the candidates. Hence, if the Third Front constituents, the left or other independent parties such as Mayawati's BSP and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM manage to get even a minuscule chunk of votes, it will definitely impact the overall poll results.

It is not as though the SP, NCP, left, and the BSP have not won the seats in the previous Assembly polls. The CPI-ML and the BSP had won five seats each while four SP candidates had made it to the state legislature in the 2005 elections. This time, Pappu Yadav's newly-floated Jan Adhikar Party is part of the Third Front and is expected to influence the voters in several constituencies of his traditional pocket borough of Saharsa-Purnia-Madhepura belt.

It will be interesting to see if the Third Front, the left, AIMIM and the BSP are able to pull off victory in 15 to 20 seats and emerge as the unlikely "king-makers" in the event of a fractured verdict.

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According to political pundits, most of these parties are likely to harm the prospects of the grand alliance due to split in the anti-BJP votes in Bihar. However, alliance leaders such as Nitish and Lalu do not attach much significance to the presence of smaller parties in the fray. They apparently believe that their alliance will register an outright victory against the NDA.

The NDA, on the other hand, is also confident that it will get a decisive mandate and will not need any prop from the Third Front to run its government. But the outcome of many a previous election in the state and elsewhere has proved that the "votekatwas" have always had a bigger role to play wherever the contest between the major parties has been close and unpredictable.

Last updated: September 28, 2015 | 19:40
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