Getting China on board in naming Pak terror groups is a diplomatic triumph
In international diplomacy and statecraft, diplomatic triumphs are scarce and India scoring two successive diplomatic wins, back to back, does augur well for the country. China, considered difficult and defiant in calling out Pakistan-based terror groups, buckled before Indian diplomacy blitz at the BRICS summit at Xiamen when it endorsed India's move to name two terror groups, operating out of Pakistan. These notorious Pakistani outfits are Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM).
The Xiamen declaration from September 4, 2017, expressed concern about the security situation and the prevailing violence in the region. Experts assess that the declaration in content, was perhaps the most hard hitting, forthright and unambiguous in tenor in the recent times.
India has reason to congratulate itself for this diplomatic success as it comes on the back of the resolution of the Doklam standoff where China was brought to India's terms by successfully prevailing over Chinese rhetoric and long drawn psychological warfare designed at intimidating India and Bhutan . Importantly, other than naming LeT and JeM, the draft also mentioned Al Qaeda, Haqqani network, Taliban and the IS.
It also named China based terror group East Turkestan Islamic Party (now known as Turkistan Islamic Party) which operates out of western China's, Xinjiang composed of Uighurs. On the whole, all major terror groups were touched upon. Using diplomatic skills to persuade Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa must have been an onerous task. Indian National Security Advisor (NSA) and full time diplomats from South Block literally toiled burning midnight oil to bring all the BRICS nations on the same page and particularly making China agree to it without batting an eyelid to embarrass its closest ally Pakistan.
Most likely, Pakistan too was not prepared for this eventuality as it may not have anticipated that China would be a party to such a drastic decision. Mandarins of Pakistan foreign ministry may be considering reviewing its ties with China after the fresh developments. Pakistani press is also altogether not muted on the Xiamen declaration. Prominent daily "Dawn" writes today "Indian media said naming the allegedly Pakistan based groups in the BRICS resolution was an important win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration, which at last year's summit called Pakistan the mothership of terrorism".
The media in Pakistan is making a feeble attempt to hide behind Indian press to mask its diplomatic debacle but it's clearly evident that Pakistan is conceding that it can no longer defend JeM or the Let. This said, however, the million dollar question now is that if China will now, in the light of the Xiamen declaration, retract from its earlier rigid stand on Maulana Masood Azhar. Pakistan must be really trying to come to terms with this apprehension. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Indian Prime Minister Modi on September 5.
Significantly, Jinping told the Indian PM that China and India should pursue "healthy and stable bilateral ties". Barely ten days ago, such a positive and what appears to be a warm statement, was perhaps inconceivable. It's, however, premature to think that such emerging closeness will be at the cost of Pakistan. It could possibly be a tactical statement or a trace of diplomatic nicety. This may be watched with abundant caution but surely this is a move forward for a thaw as the Sino-Indian ties were definitely frigid till very recently.
Another question that needs an answer is what prompted China to be in sync with other BRICS partners on the terror issue. Some skeptics state with reasonable confidence that Russian leader Vladimir Putin played a proactive role in bringing China on board and prior to the Xiamen summit, there were hectic parleys between Indians and Russians to persuade China which proved decisive.
From India’s point of view, Pakistan has certainly moved one step closer to complete global isolation and if such Indian diplomatic initiatives with aggressive tenor, combined with some tough talking continue, Pakistan will be compelled to dismantle its terror groups as it’s now bereft of any Chinese support. It may ultimately be driven to the status of a pariah state. This process may also hasten due to Pakistan's prevailing internal disturbance and political uncertainty.