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Could Sasikala be the next temporary CM of Tamil Nadu?

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TS Sudhir
TS SudhirFeb 07, 2017 | 20:52

Could Sasikala be the next temporary CM of Tamil Nadu?

On paper, Tamil Nadu does not have a chief minister now. But those in Chennai would do well to read the writing on the wall. The wall posters celebrate VK Sasikala as the "Tamizhaga Nirandara Mudalvar" (permanent chief minister). That is some bravado for someone who is being not so subtly blocked by governor Vidyasagar Rao in her bid to be sworn in as the chief minister.

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There is of course O Panneerselvam, whose resignation has been accepted, but has been told to stay on as the caretaker chief minister. Little surprise then that hectic political activity has meant governance in Tamil Nadu has taken a hit. Most senior bureaucrats are in wait-and-watch mode, trying to gauge which way the water is flowing in the Cooum.

After the change of guard that was effected on Sunday (February 5), the secretary in a crucial department in the state government for instance has reportedly told his office not to put up any fresh proposals or leave any files on his table. Most have pressed the "pause" button on their work.

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Wall posters have been celebrating VK Sasikala as the permanent chief minister.  

This was not the case in the past two months when Panneerselvam was in charge. Unlike the reticent, scared image that is usually associated with Panneerselvam, those who interacted with the CM in his last innings have come back raving about his grasp over matters of administration.

Unlike the previous two occasions when he knew J Jayalalithaa was watching over his shoulder, this time, he seemed keen to leave a mark. Which is why whether it was over cyclone Vardah or the Jallikattu ordinance, he led from the front, getting his hands and veshti dirty on the field.

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An industrialist, who met Panneerselvam in the last week of January to discuss a project in Western Tamil Nadu, gushed about how the CM asked all the right questions. "The CM had gone the extra mile to understand the subject and even had studied our earlier projects to know the hurdles we had faced," the industrialist said.

The bureaucracy also largely felt more relieved dealing with a CM who was more affable and approachable. Soon after he took over, Tamil Nadu chief secretary Rammohana Rao was raided and he was subsequently removed from his position.

Girija Vaidyanathan, who succeeded Rao, was Panneerselvam's choice. The CM felt it was important to let everyone know that he was keen on having a squeaky clean person at the top of the bureaucracy.

Quite a few of the apolitical IAS officers are also happy with the manner in the Panneerselvam-Girija combine has worked so far. Girija Vaidyanathan sent across the right message when she refused to call on Sasikala at Poes Garden after taking charge as chief secretary.

Sources say she was nudged to make the courtesy call, but she reportedly refused arguing that Sasikala does not hold a constitutional post. It was only on Monday after Sasikala was elected as the new leader of the AIADMK legislature party that Vaidyanathan called on Sasikala to discuss the formalities of the swearing-in ceremony.

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Panneerselvam also apparently told the chief secretary that she should not take political instructions from anyone, except him.

The CM clearly understood that different branches of the Sasikala family tree would try to wield influence over the administration and wanted to ensure that it did not create a termite-like effect on governance.

Panneerselvam also perhaps thought that this tenure as CM would be a longer innings, but the over-enthusiasm on Sasikala's part didn't weigh on his mind.

Those who follow the working of the Tamil Nadu administrative structure say the exit of Panneerselvam as CM, despite his inability to stand up to the political might of the pro-Sasikala group in the AIADMK, is a major blow to the party.

But latest developments, including the Supreme Court promising to deliver the verdict in the disproportionate assets (DA) case in which Sasikala is a prime accused, have introduced a twist in Tamil Nadu's political thriller. The bureaucracy is looking at different scenarios that could emerge over the next one week.

Scenario 1: Sasikala is sworn in as CM on February 9. The Supreme Court acquits her in the DA case next week, which means the party will rally around her. Already pro-Sasikala IAS officers are talking of how the court rarely overturns the verdict of a high court.

Her ascension will also mean bureaucrats associated closely with Jayalalithaa or seen to be inimical to Sasikala will be moved to "loopline" postings. Sources also indicate that former chief secretaries such as Rao and K Gnanadesikan, who were both removed under a cloud, could make a comeback in other positions.

Scenario 2: Sasikala is sworn in as CM on February 9. The Supreme Court convicts her in the DA case next week, which would mean the weekend CM will have to step down.

The chances of her husband M Natarajan making a bid for the top job are next to nil, since he is also convicted in a cheating case. The name of TTV Dinakaran, Sasikala's nephew, is also doing the rounds, but again the Madras High Court last month confirmed the penalty of Rs 25 crore imposed on Dinakaran by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in a Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) case dating back to 1996.

Which is why it could be back to Panneerselvam as anyone else at the helm of affairs could even break the party. There could, however, be an attempt to appoint a Sasikala-loyalist as the chief minister.

Scenario 3: The governor plays hardball and refuses to swear in Sasikala as CM, choosing to wait till the verdict. If she is acquitted, she takes oath of office on the day the verdict is out. But if she goes behind bars, Panneerselvam will be the best comeback man India has ever known.

For years, Tamil Nadu was home to the best bureaucracy and that the officers ran the state. But politics has divided the babudom into clear DMK and AIADMK camps, with very few apolitical officers left.

As Tamil Nadu faces one of its toughest political challenges, with uncertainty gripping the corridors of power, the coming week may prove to be decisive seven days, one that will shape the future of the state.

 

Last updated: February 08, 2017 | 13:07
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