Why Trump's foreign policy will end up working to China's advantage
The US President Donald Trump landed in China last week as part of his mega five-nation Asia tour. A grand welcome awaited him as the Chinese government left no stone unturned in making sure that Trump’s ego was massaged sufficiently enough so that his transactional avatar came to the fore and China bashing was relegated to the margins. But make no mistake, the balance of power between the two major powers is already shifting to China’s advantage.
Visionary
President Trump stands significantly weakened with a string of legislative defeats in Washington, loss of popularity, and turmoil within his administration. And Xi Jinping is the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. So the contrast is striking.
The challenge for the US is to sell its ideas and shore up its credibility in a region which views Trump as a non-serious leader and Xi as seemingly visionary. This at a time when Xi is challenging the fundamentals of the existing regional and global order.
At the recently concluded 19th Communist Party Congress, Xi made it clear that “no one political system should be regarded as the only choice and we should not just mechanically copy the political systems of other countries.For Xi, "the political system of socialism with Chinese characteristics is a great creation,” thereby leading the charge against those who had assumed that democracy would be the natural outcome of China becoming more prosperous.
Xi insisted China did “not pose a threat to any other country” but he is not ready to budge on contentious issues like the South China Sea. This assertion of China’s foreign policy was reflected in his mention of Beijing’s highly controversial island-building campaign as one of the key accomplishments of his first term.
Beijing did not seek global hegemony but “no one should expect China to swallow anything that undermines its interests” said Xi, forcefully reminding the world that this assertion of Chinese interests in the region is at the heart of the present turmoil in the larger India-Pacific.
The Trump Administration has been hardening its stand vis-à-vis China but its credibility remains questionable. The US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, in a recent speech, made it clear that Washington would continue to challenge China on fundamental values and the US can never have a kind of relationship with an autocratic China that it can aspire with a democratic India. But how Trump evolves this into a coherent Asia policy remains far from clear.
Agenda
During his tour, Trump has managed to send some conflicting messages. In Tokyo, he raised the pitch against North Korea and Seoul, he lowered it a bit. Trump targeted Kim Jong-un directly and suggested that the US was prepared to resolve the crisis diplomatically.
His back and forth in so far as a visit to the demilitarised zone between South and North Korea was also a sign that decisions on such a crucial visit were not being made with great thought. Seoul remains concerned that the Trump Administration might be tempted to deal with the North Korean regime unilaterally.
His bombastic suggestion to the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to shoot down ballistic missiles from North Korea drew on pushback from Abe who sensibly made it clear that North Korean missiles would only be shot down “if necessary.”
The real test remains China. Beijing was hoping that a deal can be struck with Trump by welcoming him lavishly. The US president and his wife Melania even visited the Forbidden City, thereby becoming the first foreign leader to dine in the Forbidden City since 1949. This unprecedented step was not been taken by China to show how much it likes Trump. But it was a calculated move to ensure that Trump didn’t go back to his China-bashing agenda.
Reliability
During his presidential campaign, Trump had called Beijing a currency manipulator and accused it of stealing US jobs. In his speech to the South Korean Parliament, Trump had pointedly targeted China and urged “all responsible nations” to isolate the North, and fully implement UN sanctions, downgrade diplomatic ties and sever trade and technology ties. But in China, trump lavished praise on Xi and laid the blame on his predecessor for unfair trade advantages going to China.
Whether Trump would succeed in reassuring American allies and partners about Washington’s reliability as the region’s economic and security guarantor is a question which has not been answered even at the end of Trump’s visit. For that, the region will have to wait and watch how Trump’s rather shambolic foreign policy evolves in the coming months.
Regional powers confront an increasingly assertive China. Democratic powers of the region can shape the regional balance of power by working together to preserve the rules-based order, one which can enhance the broader regional security and prosperity.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)