Demonetisation cost us all - now it will cost Modi the Assembly elections
The current Assembly elections in Goa, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh are going to be an important barometer of the state of politics in India. That is why PM Narendra Modi has been strident in his campaign, while his opponents are striving equally hard.
In Goa, where I stayed from December 27, 2016, to January 9, 2017, the major issue was demonetisation. Goa is an important tourist centre and draws a large number of foreign visitors. There, from hotel and restaurant owners, to shopkeepers big and small, taxi drivers, Indian tourists, and others, the large majority were aggressively anti-BJP.
The Archbishop of the Roman Catholic Church was irate with the corruption of the government and lack of funds for supporting English language education. He vented his ire in front of the Goan politicians. That is what forced Manohar Parrikar to concentrate on Goa.
It seems the Congress would be the largest party after the Assembly elections. But with a plethora of small parties, including an RSS breakaway, there might be a hung Assembly, if the Congress is unable to reach an absolute majority.
The Punjab Assembly elections are two sided. The Akali Dal-BJP alliance is suffering from severe anti-incumbency. Widespread drug consumption is being largely attributed to the incumbents, especially the Akali Dal. The noteban is an issue too. The Congress was late in announcing Captain Amarinder Singh as the CM prospect.
On the other hand, the Aam Aadmi Party, many believe initially made a serious error in not announcing a prospective CM, especially a Jat Sikh. However, in the later stages, the AAP made major gains, especially in the seat-rich Malwa area. A victory is very important for AAP to prove that it is not a one-state party. But a victory in Punjab would be an important demonstration of the revival of the Congress, if it is coupled with a revival in Uttar Pradesh. A high stakes battle royal is taking place here.
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| Photo: Indiatoday.in |
UP is the most critical state. In western UP, with the RLD kept out by the SP-Congress alliance, the Jats will vote for candidates from their community. The Muslims will do tactical voting as before, but the secular alliance has made minorities feel more secure. The BJP has overplayed its Hindutva card. Modi comparing himself to Krishna, with Amit Shah and many local BJP leaders raising the Ram Mandir issue again, has not helped.
Likewise, the PM has stated he would waive off all agricultural and other loans after the elections, and this comes in the background of the noteban, which is a major issue in this election too. Though voters are reluctant to speak, a significant number are now criticising the demonetisation drive, despite being promised a much better monetary situation within 50 days of the noteban. A defeat in UP after its 2014 winning performance will be bad for the Sangh, but also a personal defeat for the PM.
And what are the pro-demonetisation brigades doing? They have not been able to deliver the monetary stability so essential for an NDA sweep. Unlike Raghuram Rajan, current RBI governor Urjit Patel, during the Assembly elections, persists in claiming that the negative impact of the noteban would be "for a short period of time".
He repeated this assurance a few days ago. But Modi's deadline of 50 days after November 8, 2016, passed almost two months ago. Altogether more than 100 days have passed. Apparently, Patel considers this another "short period of time".
He also made an astounding claim. He said: "Remonetisation has happened at a fast pace and that was part of the plan..." What remonetisation? Where is the promised new Rs 1,000 currency note? Where are the other promised new notes? MoS for finance Arjun Meghwal promised a month ago that they would print new lower denomination currency notes. Where are they?
No one is claiming that even 50 per cent of the value of demonetised notes has been printed. Yet, "remonetisation", the RBI governor claims, "has happened at a fast pace?!" Even after the election results, the electorate will not forget or forgive the monetary distress they have undergone.
It seems Patel is giving a performance to counter industrialist Rajiv Bajaj who lashed out a couple of days ago out at the demonetisation fiasco, pointing out that the idea to ban high value notes was itself "wrong". Interestingly, banker Aditya Puri, chairperson of HDFC Bank, debunked the "wallets" which the Modi government propagated as part of the cashless economy.
Puri pointed out that, "wallets as a valid economic proposition are doubtful. There is no money in the payments business. The current loss by market leader Paytm is Rs 1,651 crore." Another official myth exposed.
The Modi machine is more busy myth-making than note-printing.