India must not have unrealistic expectations from Donald Trump
Some sections of India appear elated at the election of Donald Trump as next US President, obviously because he is perceived as "anti-Muslim" and because of his public announcement that he loved "Hindu", using the word as synonymous for India.
New Delhi, however, will need to temper its expectations from the billionaire real estate developer about whom the only thing predictable is his unpredictability. Despite being devoid of political experience and his wayward nature, Trump will have to primarily serve the interests of the US, not India, and the two do not always coincide.
Disillusion awaits certainly if anyone assumes that the moment he occupies the White House, Trump will inflict more pain on Pakistan for taking the US for a ride in Afghanistan vis-à-vis the Taliban and for unhindered transport of terror to India.
Though he may be highly opinionated, he will be compelled to work within the parameters set by his party colleagues and officials if he wants the US to remain the foremost world power.
Anyhow, no US president can translate everything he said during the election campaign into practice. But a lot of what he does in the sphere of foreign relations will depend on the equation he has with different world leaders.
Trump formally takes charge as US President in January 2017. But some world leaders, notably the Japanese prime minister, have already met him in Washington. One does not know if any senior Indian leader has met him or is planning to call on Trump to prepare the ground for the kind of rapport Modi reportedly had with Barack Obama.
The foreign secretary visited Washington after the presidential election results were announced but that trip alone may not be enough to bring India on the radar of the new incoming US administration.
Despite all the hoopla about burgeoning India-US relations over the past two-three years, there are many rough areas which remain and which India will find difficult to negotiate with the "Hindu"-loving Trump.
Backed heavily by the White middle class, which does tend to be rather inward looking and conservative, Trump will have to live up to his promise of taking back American jobs that he suspects have been taken away by Indians (and some other nationals, the Chinese in particular).
He will not give up his call for American capital to return home, affecting investments in countries like India. Not much should be made of the fact that Trump will be mindful of India’s concern in these areas merely because he has some business interest in this country or even the monetary help some rich Indians in the US had offered to his campaign.
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| US-Pakistan ties under the Barack Obama administration remained strained. (Photo: Reuters) |
It is probable that India will gloss over some of the unresolved issues with the US. But what India will not be able to overlook is the possibility of the Trump administration ignoring India's security concerns that arise out of the China-Pakistan axis.
The outgoing Obama administration looked ambiguous in its China policy, confining its admonitions of China to criticism of its human rights record and showing firmness in opposing China’s expansionist policies that include arbitrary claims over the South China Sea.
US-Pakistan ties under the Obama administration have been under strain no doubt, but it will be wrong to assume that it happened because of "pressure" from India or to show agreement with India’s security interests.
Had that been the case, the US would not have continued to believe, as it has all along, that to bring stability in Afghanistan its only option is to depend on Pakistan. The Obama administration appeared quite receptive to Pakistan’s objections on India’s increasing footprints in Afghanistan.
The US has been making proforma statements on Pakistan’s continuous export of terror, asking it to "do more". It makes no difference because Pakistan has seen that defying the "advice" will bring no harm to it. India must try and get the Trump administration to go beyond the "do more" mode on Pakistan’s principal export to the world.
US exaggeration of Pakistan’s role in shaping the future of Afghanistan has made Pakistan believe it can now adopt an in-your-face attitude towards the White House.
Pakistan’s newfound swagger comes as a result of China’s tight embrace with a $46 billion-plus package and Russia, scorned by the West, reaching out to it in a desperate bid to expand its considerably shrunk area of influence.
India has enjoyed good relations with the US under Obama, but it is forgotten that the foundation for it was laid by the "historic" 123 Agreement with the US to end India’s long period of nuclear isolation.
An important task before the mandarins of South Block will be to alter the misconception that without the US mollycoddling Pakistan, Afghanistan will remain unstable. Afghanistan will remain unstable as long as Pakistan interferes in its affairs with the help of its proxies.
It is true that the election of Trump has worried the Pakistanis. But they have lost no time in chalking out policies to retain, if not improve, their perilous ties with the US. PM Nawaz Sharif felicitated the president-elect. His diplomats have got into action to make friends in the new US administration even as their chief assignment continues to be vilifying India.
Pakistan is among the most disliked countries in the US and the West. But that cannot allow India to sit back with a false sense of assurance.
India and its influential diaspora in the US will do well to court influential Republicans to expose Pakistan as the country that lives by exporting terror to India and much of the world.
Well, India may like to rely on Americans of Indian origin, be they lawmakers or occupying high positions in the new US administration, to align US policies with India’s interests. But we should not forget that Americans of Indian origin are Americans first and their loyalties lie there.
Some of them may have sentimental attachment to India but they think like any other American because of which they were able to get elected or appointed to senior positions.