Why Mayawati is saying she will prefer to sit in opposition in Uttar Pradesh
Despite being one of the frontrunners for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, BSP supremo Mayawati finally admitted that she will prefer to sit in the opposition if her party doesn't get a clear majority, instead of taking any party's help.
The major contenders in the state - BJP and SP-Congress alliance - haven't yet made any such claims. Mayawati, perhaps, is the only leader who has made such a "risky" statement, with still six phases and 330 seats left to go to the polls.
Only last week, at the end of the first phase of the elections in India's most populous state, BJP national president Amit Shah had said that BSP is the saffron party's main rival in the first two phases and SP-Congress alliance in the rest.
Shah's intention behind making such a claim was to divide the anti-BJP votes by making it a three-cornered fight between itself, BSP and the SP-Congress alliance, rather than a one-on-one battle. Taking on a single party or alliance will hamper the BJP's chances in the state.
However, it was also an attempt by Shah to prove that BJP is the strongest contender to form the government in UP. For Mayawati, it is extremely important to make people understand that her party is a strong force, and by voting for BSP, their votes wouldn't go to waste.
For this to happen, the BSP supremo has to strengthen her core electoral base: the Dalit-Muslim votebank.
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| Mayawati needs to consolidate Muslim support. (Photo: India Today) |
For Muslim voters, it seems SP and not the BSP is the first choice. Many from the community have apprehensions about Mayawati due to her past alliances with the BJP. Muslims fear that if BSP fails to get a clear majority, Mayawati might turn to the BJP yet again to form the government, thereby cheating the minority community. Hence, to avoid such a situation, perhaps, Akhilesh Yadav's SP is their first choice.
The BSP supremo has to ensure she doesn't just go on making tall claims; rather, she needs to consolidate Muslim support, which seems to be slipping right now. Therefore, Mayawati needs to make it clear to the Muslim community that under no circumstances will she join hands with the BJP.
This is the context in which Mayawati's statement - of rather being in opposition than colluding with the BJP - has to be seen. It is actually an assurance to the Muslim community that they can vote for her without any fear or suspicion. If this message gets translated into votes, a seemingly negative statement could reap positive dividends for Mayawati.
The opposition, no doubt, would attack Mayawati over her "defeatist" statement, but even this attack could show Mayawati as committed to the cause of her core electoral base.
UP elections 2017 is a decisive battle for Mayawati and her party. It is extremely important for her to win not just for her own political future but for the future of Dalit politics in India as well. So, by saying she would prefer to be in the opposition, she has made a big gamble.
Whether Muslims buy Mayawati's assurance remains to be seen and will be clear only after March 11.