MCD election 2017 results: Delhi middle class chose Modi over Kejriwal
Results of the MCD elections, held on April 23, are now out and the BJP has won 182 out of 270 wards. It’s a decisive mandate despite the fact that the BJP was the incumbent party with ten years of questionable rule of the MCDs. Though not very dissimilar from the India Today – Axis My India exit poll, the results have nevertheless come with a number of lessons and questions.
Here are the key takeaways of the MCD elections 2017.
1) Modi wave continues
For the BJP, it was a big win in all parameters as the most vocal political opponent of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Aam Aadmi Party leader and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, has been pushed to the second position in his own bastion.
BJP is ahead with almost 40 per cent vote share, while AAP is consolidated at a dismal second rank with around 25 per cent vote share, and the Congress at the third with around 21 per cent.
Getting the political adversaries cornered in their own turf is therefore the biggest achievement for the BJP. The margin of win is also considerable. Though, it must be said that the MCD 2017 verdict comes with an immense weight of renewed responsibility. This time, the people of Delhi have reposed their faith in the PM and have voted en bloc for Modi.
But the fact remains that the on-ground situation, in fields such as sanitation and other civil works, is terrible, and actually much worse in BJP-owned municipalities.
2) AAP lost ground in the national capital
It’s capital punishment for Arvind Kejriwal this time. After losing heavily in Punjab and Goa and raising the EVM tampering issue with the apex court, this electoral loss by the AAP will echo for a long time to come. That the party didn’t even cross the half-century mark is telling.
Even in the wards where they have won, the margin of victory is often minute. That means others who were trailing could have easily inched past, had the vote share gone even slightly south. The competition, it’s obvious, was at a high-pitched level.
AAP scored among the slum-dwellers and the lower middle classes of Delhi, but completely lost support from the middle classes, youth and even women voters. It also appears that the Muslim vote got divided. Unauthorised colonies seem to have supported them but Muslim-dominated areas ditched them.
This is an alarming situation for AAP for sure, as these were the most important voting patterns that the BJP successfully focused on in Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections and the just concluded by-polls.
It’s fairly evident that a brand new strategy and rejuvenation is needed at all levels as far as the AAP is concerned. It’s important to realise that they erred in spreading their wings in too many states way too quickly, diluting the impact and sway on each in turn. Would the situation be any better if they had focused more on Delhi, rather than trying hard to drop the “regional party” image?
3) Cracks in the Congress
Becoming the number-three party doesn’t bode well for the Congress. As Ajay Maken resigns, the Congress needs to deal with the fact that it trailed behind AAP by 4-5 per cent, but their vote-count came down heavily when compared to the 2012 MCD election results.
This is the fifth big consecutive loss for the Congress. The string of defeats began with the MCD polls in 2012, in Delhi Assembly in 2014, in the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 with zero MPs in Delhi, recent by-poll of the Rajouri Garden constituency and now the 2017 MCD elections.
This sends a strong signal to the party high command that an overhaul and organisational restricting is more than necessary. Mere patch work efforts wouldn’t take the party anywhere.
The only silver lining for the Congress has been the increase in vote-share from just 8 per cent in the Delhi Assembly polls of 2015, to the current MCD polls when it has touched 21 per cent. Other than that, no one’s quite keen on talking to the hand.
4) Biggest losers
AAP’s Alka Lamba has offered to resign for not even holding the fort in her own den. Chandni Chowk constituency has three MCD wards and BJP won two (Civil Lines and Chandni Chowk), while the Congress won the Jama Masjid ward.
The assembly constituencies where AAP fared worse than expected include Manish Sisodia`s Patpadganj area, Kapil Mishra’s Karawal Nagar (2/5), Rakhi Birla’s Mangolpuri, Somnath Bharti’s Malviya Nagar, as well as Gopal Rai’s Bababarpur. These stalwarts of AAP were expected to produce victories at least in their own bastions.
There seems to be a major disconnect between AAP leaders and the aam aadmi of Delhi.
5) Manoj Tiwari garnered Purvanchali votes
Lower-middle class Purvanchali voters favoured the BJP over AAP. Manoj Tiwari’s face did lure the votes in, especially the Purvanchali ones. So the big experiment by the BJP to get into the sociocultural skin of these areas was successful. In the northeast, west and some pockets of east Delhi, BJP has gained big by carefully weighing in favour of Tiwari.
6) EVMs, the big monster?
Though it sounds ridiculous, but the AAP has discovered a great escape hatch to explain away the humiliating defeat in the MCD polls. Manish Sisodia, Gopal Rai and Ashutosh have all criticised the electronic voting machines and have blamed faulty EVMs for the big drubbing that they got this time. Surprisingly, Ajay Maken has not, which is a relief.
7) Big surprises in recounting
In Chhattarpur, the BJP candidate won by two votes and the Daryaganj Congress candidate won after challenging the BJP win and later won by 59 votes.
8) Mid-term polls ahead?
Only time will tell how soon the AAP announces the mid-term polls as the issue of 21 parliamentary seats is reserved and is presently with the Election Commission. Now biases with the Delhi EC and allegations by AAP of BJP wooing them could mean that there might be more surprises in the offing.