Why MK Stalin is cautious about the floor test in Tamil Nadu

On Friday, a delegation of opposition parties including the DMK, Congress and the Left representatives met President Ram Nath Kovind to demand that the Tamil Nadu chief minister be asked to prove his majority on the floor of the House. This was after a similar request to governor Vidyasagar Rao did not yield the desired result.

Last week, 19 AIADMK legislators owing allegiance to TTV Dhinakaran told Rao that they had lost confidence in Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami. Raj Bhavan's interpretation is that this is an internal matter of the ruling party as the rebel MLAs are seeking a change in leadership in their legislature party. The opposition says it is a wrong reading of the situation as the EPS government is technically in a minority. 

But posturing apart, the opposition is not exactly prepared to face a floor test if one was ordered tomorrow. In private conversations, leaders seek more time as several loose ends will need to be tied.

The dilemma faced by the DMK is that the Privileges committee of the Tamil Nadu Assembly issued notices to 21 DMK legislators including Leader of the Opposition MK Stalin for carrying gutka, a banned substance, into the legislature during the session on 19 July.  

While Stalin said it was an attempt to prove that the government was not taking any steps to prevent sale of “gutka” and that it was freely available, Speaker P Dhanapal called it a breach of privilege and referred it to the committee.

The DMK now suspects that if it moves a no-confidence motion, the privileges committee headed by Deputy Speaker Pollachi V Jayaraman would suspend the MLAs and save the government. 

Under the rules, once a no-confidence motion is defeated, a second one cannot be moved for the next six months. On August 28, notices were issued by the Privileges Committee to the erring members, asking them to reply within a week. 

So the DMK plan is to go to court and secure a stay on any decision by the privileges committee by arguing that the party was raising an issue of public concern by demonstrating that the ban on sale of gutka existed only on paper. 

The other reason is to give Dhinakaran more time. Though he has 23 MLAs by his side now, his camp claims another 9-10 odd legislators who Dhinakaran describes as "sleeper cells'' will come out in the open only inside the Assembly.

The DMK wants to be sure of the exact strength in the rebel camp so that the opposition has enough legislator muscle to deal the ruling formation a body blow. Which is why one school of thought is to wait till September 12, when the AIADMK General Council to expel VK Sasikala has been called.

Sources in the DMK believe that if Sasikala is shown the door, the numbers in the Dhinakaran camp could swell to even 50. The reason for this is the resentment among many AIADMK lawmakers that all decisions are being taken at Delhi's behest, with EPS and O Panneerselvam virtually surrendering the party to a remote control.

A majority of the AIADMK legislators were handpicked by Sasikala to fight the election and owe their political careers to her influence inside Jayalalithaa's Poes Garden residence. Would Amma have liked to see her party prostrating before Delhi like this, goes the sentiment in private.

However, the Dhinakaran camp has moved the Madras High court seeking a stay on the General Council meeting, arguing only the general secretary of the party, which is Sasikala, is authorised to call such a meeting. 

Even if the stay is granted on the gutka issue, ideally, neither Dhinakaran nor Stalin would like to move a no-confidence motion. The optics of AIADMK legislators voting for a DMK-backed motion would expose Dhinakaran to the charge of toppling "Amma's government'' and that would dent his political equity.

On the other hand, if Dhinakaran's camp MLAs move the motion, the Speaker could disqualify them even before they get to vote – which is why both want the governor to ask EPS to prove his majority.

At the same time, the strategy also is to secure Palaniswami's head. The plan is to take control of the party by forcing a change of leadership because most in the AIADMK would want its government to continue for as long as it can, given that it has served only 15 of its 60 months in office so far. But then with the bad blood between the two camps, it is highly unlikely that the demand of the Mannargudi family will be entertained. 

While it is a given the AIADMK government in its present form is on its last legs, the timing of the guillotine isn't a done deal yet. Till then governance in Tamil Nadu will continue to be on auto pilot. 

Also read - Malegaon blasts case: Implications of SC's conclusions in Lt Col Purohit's bail judgment