How BJP proved in UP polls that demonetisation was a disaster
Few economists believe the government has not used statistical sleight of hand to report faster-than-expected Q3 GDP growth in a bid to disprove demonetisation disaster.
The fact is even the government claim of 7 per cent growth is less than pre-demonetisation estimate of 7.4 percent.
That the GDP would take a hit after the notebandi was no point of contention even as the extent of the slide was hotly debated.
However, the most contentious of the prime minister’s claims that demonetisation would eradicate the scourge of the black money and the pervasive corruption from politics and public life are in shreds.
Two events — the Tamil Nadu political drama over choosing J Jayalalithaa’s successor, and the elections in UP and other states — have proved that claims of notebandi leading to curb on the use of black money were hogwash.
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| The first major post-demonetisation state elections, especially the one in UP, are being fought with parties pulling out all stops to win, which includes unfettered flow of cash. |
The naked use and display of unaccounted money by political parties is a reminder that cash is still the king. It’s the cash that oils the political machine. The two events are reminders that the system reeks with the black money now as it did before November 8 last year.
As many as 130 AIADMK legislators were held hostage at a luxury resorts for over a week. They were well looked after, entertained with whatever the money could buy to keep them happy.
Each one of them who were shepherded to the resorts and back to the Assembly to cast vote is reported to have been paid handsomely.
The practice of herding legislators to safe havens, holding them hostage till assembly floor tests and buying their votes is not new. It’s just that it happened in such manner in Tamil Nadu for the first time.
The total cost of the entire melodrama must run into hundreds of crores of unaccounted money in cash or kind. This happened barely a month after the 50-day deadline of cash crunch set by Modi. Where did the cash come from?
And cash was not a trickle; it was a torrent.
A raging torrent that is visible in the UP elections. With the stakes so high, a semi-final match before the final is played out in 2019, parties and their chief campaigners aren’t leaving anything to chance.
And they can’t leave cash on the side. Like all previous elections, the first major post-demonetisation state elections, especially the one in UP, are being fought with parties pulling out all stops to win, which includes unfettered flow of cash.
According to a report in the Times of India, cash seizures in UP after three phases of polling totalled Rs 110 crore, over three times the size of the seizures made in the previous elections in 2012.
Likewise in Punjab, the total cash seized amounted to Rs 58 crore, more than five times caught during 2012 elections. It’s true of Goa and other states too. Seizures of liquor and other things used in elections to lure voters are at all-time high cocking a snook at the whole saga of the demonetisation.
"The massive and unprecedented cash seizures from the poll-bound states prove that demonetisation has had no effect on use of money power in elections," an Election Commission official has been quoted by the Times of India saying on the issue.
Where is the record flow of cash coming from?
Why is cash flowing in torrent if demonetisation flushed out the unaccounted and untaxed money from the system?
Were the political parties led by the BJP with vulgar display of money and resources in the elections kept out of the purview of the note ban?
Contrast the present situation with what happened when the then chief election commissioner TN Seshan (1990-1996) took measures to curb use of money in elections.
When he introduced limit on the expenses of political parties as well as candidates, the impact was visible and palpable.
Those of us who had reported on election campaigns in pre-Seshan period saw elections becoming devoid of all frills and colours with the EC keeping a hawk-eye on the use of money and resources.
The ongoing UP election is not only the most hard-fought of the elections one can recall, it’s also must be the most expensive. The competition among the political parties to divide the people in the current election is as fierce as the race to spend the money and resources to lure the voters.
What’s the source of all the money being spent on the rallies, on the processions and road shows with hundreds and thousands of vehicles, all the buntings and billboards if the demonetisation had choked the source of black money?
Will the champion of demonetisation answer?
He won’t because he has no answer.