Rahul's failure and Modi's success: Time is running out for both

Rahul Gandhi has bombed again. He has improved his oratory (read his Wikipedia) skills, and even attended a few sessions at a conference in Aspen. And yet when he tries to be original, he mucks it up. As part of his youth outreach programme, the Congress vice president got a reality check when talking to young girls at Mount Carmel College in Bangalore. He said: "Even though the BJP has come to power, I don't see a strategy. I see a lot of talk. I see a lot of talk on clean(ing) your country. Are we serious? Clean your country... is it working? I don't see it working. You see it working?" To his visible surprise and embarrassment, a majority of students enthusiastically said "yes". So what does he do? He fumbled and mumbled and somehow got out of there.

Here is someone who seemingly has everything: the right name, a clutch of sycophants ready to die at his very word, a liberal establishment that is literally begging him to take the reins of the country away from the incumbent, having announced the arrival of Rahul 2.0 several times over the last decade, and an ability to disappear for weeks without anyone knowing anything. But the man, despite his best efforts, keeps on bombing. This would almost be laughable - a nice plot for a Bollywood blockbuster - if the stakes for the nation were not so high.

The reason why Rahul bombed in Bangalore was simple: for all his tutoring, the man has no sense of the political pulse of the country. He seemingly thinks that if he only keeps repeating his "suit-boot ki sarkar" mantra, the prime ministership of the country would be his for the taking. Recent election results in Bihar may also have led him to draw some rather tenuous conclusions. If this is indeed the case, then this is highly worrying because he, and his advisors, seem to have no clue about the political trajectory of the country. The Congress' entire strategy is to discredit Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his agenda. The calculation seems to be that if it can obstruct the prime minister's agenda, his whole development project will come to a halt, discrediting Modi and his brand. And so it doesn't matter if "Swachh Bharat" or "Make in India" are laudable ideas. The Congress and Rahul will continue to argue that these are useless initiatives destined to fail.

Just think about the bankruptcy of this idea. A political opponent certainly is under no obligation to support the government's initiatives. But if the initiative is generically sound, which is the case here, then politically, the Congress should be talking about how to improve upon these initiatives, not disparage them at every given opportunity. But all Rahul has been suggesting for months is how these initiatives will never work. It doesn't matter if India and Indians need these initiatives; it even doesn't matter if they support them. What is important for Rahul is to, first and foremost, discredit Modi.

To be fair to the Congress, this strategy seems to be working to a degree. All those who have never been supportive of Modi in the past, and were vociferous against his prime ministership till the last vote was cast in the general election in 2014, have now come together to launch a campaign to save India from "intolerance", though they will today find it difficult to make a credible case that India is being governed by a less effective and responsive government than in the recent past. There is a method to this madness - before every election, raise the pitch on intolerance, bring the focus on Modi, link his present to his past, and then suggest, "Look we told you so". The whole campaign has just one target: Modi.

Rahul's acolytes have, of course, taken their vilification of Modi to a new level. Speaking during an interview to a Pakistani news channel, Mani Shankar Aiyar, is reported to have said that in order to end the stalemate in the relations between India and Pakistan "the first and the foremost thing is to remove Modi. Only then can the talks move forward". He further said, "Bring us (the Congress) back to power and remove them (the NDA). There is no other way (to improve the relations). We will remove them, but till then you (Pakistan) have to wait."

Meanwhile, another Congress luminary and no less than an ex-external affairs minister, Salman Khurshid, has had no compunction in personally attacking his prime minister in Pakistan, suggesting to an audience of Indian friends that "Modi is not used to talking to people who disagree with him". This was just the start. Praising Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif for attending Modi's swearing-in ceremony in India, Khurshid said: "If you look back at the first face-to-face between our PMs, your PM took a brave, farsighted decision. What we said and did made things uncomfortable for Pakistan after the visit." Let's forget for a moment who invited Sharif to India in the first place and how great India-Pakistan relations were going under Khurshid's leadership. But it really doesn't matter to the Congress if Indian foreign policy suffers in the process or if the Congress' own credibility as a mainstream national party gets destroyed. So long as Modi's stature is being diminished, all's fair game.

In this "Destroy Modi" campaign, the prime minister himself has played an important role. He has not taken ownership of the Modi government the way he took ownership of the 2014 election campaign. The 2014 mandate was for Modi and for his development agenda; it was not for the BJP. But surprisingly, he has allowed the direction of the government to drift with fringe elements taking control of the narrative. He has to marginalise these elements if he wants his government to get back to the business of governance. He needs fresh talent in his Cabinet. Why rely on individuals who may be good at winning arguments in television studios but have very little to show in terms of actual delivery?

For a man who was voted in with the expectation that he would shake up Lutyens' Delhi, he has allowed the establishment to shape his agenda. One has to just look at the controversy surrounding HRD minister Smriti Irani reportedly recommending over 5,000 requests for admission to the Central government-run Kendriya Vidyalayas, an over four-fold jump from quota levels of her predecessors. Irrespective of the merits of the claims and counter-claims, why is a prime minister, who talks of "Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas" and aspirational politics, and his HRD minister carrying on with this Congress-style patronage system? Instead of defending this practice by suggesting that even Opposition MPs make these admission recommendations, why not scrap this quota for MPs altogether?

Despite all the selfies, Lutyens' Delhi is never going to like Modi and it is up to him to challenge the status quo. Modi is fond of saying that he likes doing small things. But perhaps time has come to do one big thing and give a sense of strategic coherence to his government. He should have done this in his first few months in office. Election defeats in Delhi and Bihar have weakened his hand. But he still stands head and shoulder above anyone else in his own party and in the larger political establishment. He should use his political capital till it is there.

The only hope for the Congress in 2019 is to tarnish "Brand Modi". And Rahul Gandhi will continue to do this despite his embarrassment in Bangalore. So long as there are still voices in the crowd who can shout back "yes" to the Congress' negative politics, Modi should feel reassured. In this, while the liberal establishment will always be with Rahul, Modi will have to trudge alone. He will need all the support he can from those ordinary Indians who had voted for him in 2014 with great expectations. But they won't be there forever.