Branding Bihar: What Nitish Kumar can learn from Modi and Kejriwal

Against the backdrop of the historic Lok Sabha elections of 2014, Bihar's by-poll results (showing a reversal of the trends observed in 2014), the Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) landslide victory in Delhi and the emergence of the Janta Parivar, the impending race in Bihar promises to be both gripping and hyper-competitive. What may be perceived as a neck-and-neck fight, could end up largely one-sided.

While the carefully constructed Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) coalition is a formidable front, the Janata Dal-United (JD(U)), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and (probable) Congress coalition is promising too.

Modern campaigning methods can catapult the JD(U) coalition to the pole position. Three strategies that can work for the JD(U) coalition are:

Data-driven decisions 

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP decisively won three out of five regions in Bihar. Its goodwill in these regions (Tirhut, Magadh and Bhojpur) leaves little elbow room for others. However, analytical firepower can help the JD(U) identify bright spots and focus its resources. Analysis of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the 2010 Vidhan Sabha elections, and the 2009 Lok Sabha elections reveals: Firstly, the JD(U) has consistently won ten assembly constituencies - it should consolidate its vote base in these areas.

Secondly, despite having the smallest base vote (votes won across all elections) of 19 per cent relative to 24 per cent, 35 per cent, and 24 per cent of LJP, BJP and RJD respectively, JD(U) has the largest swing vote (votes won at least once) of 25 per cent, compared to 17 per cent, 12 per cent and 12 per cent of the LJP, BJP and RJD respectively.

This indicates a massive opportunity, and risk, for the now JD(U) and RJD tag-team. If these two parties are able to capture a sizeable portion of this large swing vote through effective communication and voter outreach, they could upset the BJP's plans in Bihar. In seat allocation among the parties of the Janta Parivar, the JD(U) could lose out if it fails to secure seats in its strongholds.

Targeted communication

The JD(U) coalition must set the terms of the electoral contest. In the assembly elections in Delhi, the AAP used "incumbency" to its advantage. Despite being in power for only 49 days, the AAP was able to turn that into an advantage by highlighting its achievements. Unlike the AAP, the JD(U) has a decade-long track record which it can harness. Its accomplishments include the establishment of "Jankari", an electronic version of the RTI act, the launching of E-Shakti MGNREGS and the initiation of the Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojna. During the JD(U)'s first five years in office - between 2005 and 2009 - the state economy grew on average 11 per cent, and the state reported 14 per cent growth in 2010-2011.

Although these facts are largely undisputed, the JD(U) has not fully capitalised on these achievements through effective communication.

Moreover, since JD(U) and BJP were in a coalition between 2005 and 2009, it is important for the JD(U) to stake claim to the progress achieved in that time period. In a recent instaVaani poll in Bihar (taken by 400 respondents), people were asked about the Nitish Kumar government's performance on power supply. The poll's results indicated that 65 per cent of the respondents consider electricity an important issue in the upcoming elections. It also revealed that 29 per cent of the people in Bihar feel that the power situation is good in their area.

Of the 29 per cent who are satisfied with the progress on power supply, 37 per cent think the chief minister has not done enough to solve the power crisis, while only 32 per cent of people think he has. This shows the gap between accomplishment and perception. To maximise electoral mileage, it is crucial for the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) to inform the voters, especially the beneficiaries, of his efforts.

Personality-centric campaigning 

In recent elections, individuals have come to dominate campaigns. This presidential style of campaigning has proven effective both to inspire workers, and to reach out to voters. Modi's projection in the Lok Sabha campaign energised BJP's cadre, the RSS foot soldiers and the volunteers who believed in him as a beacon for acche din. AAP in Delhi was also driven by thousands of evangelists motivated by the idea of clean politics, epitomised by Arvind Kejriwal. By inspiring workers, personalities like Kejriwal and Modi have been able to develop well-oiled machinery, now a marked feature of modern campaigning. The much-touted Panna Pramukh strategy (involved each RSS swayamsevak being assigned one page in the voter list to get out on voting day) deployed by BJP president, Amit Shah, was only possible because of the efforts of these enthused workers.

Data also suggests voters identify with leaders instead of parties. In a poll conducted by ABP News-Nielson in 2013, 36 per cent of respondents said they would vote for BJP in the upcoming 2014 Lok Sabha elections while only 18 per cent said they would vote for the Congress. In another poll conducted the same day, 49 per cent of the respondents said they would vote for the BJP in the upcoming elections assuming Modi would be the leader versus. On the other hand, 18 per cent that said they would vote for the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress. This 13 per cent jump in votes for a Modi-led BJP suggests that a personality-centered campaign is more effective than a party centered one especially when a credible face exists.

Additionally, opinion polls run during the Delhi assembly campaigns by India Today and Cicero in December 2014 had shown that while the BJP stood ahead of AAP in voteshare by a margin of three per cent, Arvind Kejriwal emerged as the most popular CM candidate with 35 per cent of the respondents voting for him, and only 19 per cent voting for the proxy BJP candidate, Dr Harsh Vardhan.

The individual driven "paanch saal" Kejriwal campaign got enough traction with the voters to compel the BJP into finding a face for their campaign - Kiran Bedi. These observations show the clear advantages in building a campaign around a single leader. Nitish Kumar needs to negotiate a deal within the coalition to project himself as this key leader. He also needs to attach himself to a compelling vision. Given his track record, Nitish can convincingly be marketed as a vanguard of development.

This branding will certainly go a long way towards cultivating a cadre and (re)convincing voters that he is the man for the job. Although caste dynamics will undoubtedly play a key role in the Bihar elections, we believe that modern campaigning chips away at traditional electoral assumptions. In addition to the social engineering that the BJP coalition achieves, the BJP will deploy modern campaigning techniques, and jumlas, in Bihar. Therefore, comprehensive and clear articulation of achievements, data-driven political decisions, and a personality centric campaign will enable the JD(U) coalition to compete effectively.