Kim Jong-un versus Donald Trump: Who will see reason?
It appears that the offensive posture taken by US President Donald Trump against North Korea is actually helping to ease out the situation in the Korean peninsula. Possibly, this is for the first time North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been told in the same language that he understands that, enough is enough.
North Korea had announced that it could launch four missiles in the vicinity of the Guam islands as a response to the sanctions put on them. To this threat, Trump gave a very unabashed response - that one incorrect move in the region of Guam islands and North Korea would meet with “fire and fury”.
Probably, Trump’s behaviour in the last six months in power has made North Korea see reason. His brash attitude and brazen approach have probably made North Korea realise that he is capable of starting a conflict in response to launched missiles. This possibility has made Kim Jong-un blink.
In the Korean theatre, the real actor behind the screen is China. Now, China has taken Trump’s threat seriously and has immediately started engaging with him on the North Korean issue. They have announced that they are stopping the import of coal, iron ore and seafood from North Korea, according to UN sanctions.
It would be premature to conclude that the situation in the Korean region would not escalate further, but at least at this point of time there is some silence.
During 1981, Israel had destroyed the Iranian Osiris nuclear reactor facility in an air attack. Could the US launch precision attacks on missile/nuclear sites in North Korea? Presently, North Korea’s strength lies in its missile force. So, is it possible for the US to diminish this strength without waging war?
Since May 2017, US aircraft have been undertaking reconnaissance missions over the North Korean region with planes routinely flying at a height of 70,000 km (North Korea has no capability to detect them). The US also generates tactical intelligence via satellites. It has been reported that the US has identified 12 locations in North Korea (essentially their missile silos and other related infrastructure) for undertaking precision bombing.
The B-1B bombers of the US Air Force located at Guam islands have already practised for such missions and are ready to offer “shock and awe” if required. Attacks on nuclear sites could lead to a nuclear fallout and contamination of air. But, the US has bombs like the Agent Defeat Weapons (ADW) which could ensure that the sites get destroyed, but nuclear radiations get controlled.
China is an extremely important player in this conflict and a close friend of North Korea. Any major disturbances in North Korea could lead to influx of refugees to China. Also, the possibility of a united Korea would allow the presence of US forces on China’s borders.
Naturally, China is keen to maintain the status quo. However, Pyongyang does not appear to be in total control of China. Hence, China would be required to work overtime for stopping any escalation in the region.
The US is probably playing a hot and cold game. Except for Trump, all other leaders like the secretary of state and defence secretary have been taking a somewhat modest approach. But the president is clear and pushing the envelope further. He claims that US military options are “locked and loaded” and the North Korean ruler, Kim Jong-un, would “truly regret” any attack on Guam or other US or allied territory.
This has made Kim Jong-un, who has finalised his plans in respect of firing four intermediate range missiles at the waters around Guam, see reason in de-escalation. Now, he is found talking a different language and is planning to assess the “foolish Yankees” before finalising the Guam mission. In short, Trump’s threat appears to have forced China to react and Kim Jong-un to take a pause.
At the end of World War II in 1945, the Korean peninsula was divided into two regions along the 38th parallel, with the northern part of the peninsula being occupied by the Soviet Union and the southern part by the US. Subsequently, Korean politics was seen played more as power politics between the then two superpowers.
Today, China is appearing to be replacing the erstwhile USSR. China has multiple utility of North Korea. Since the rest of the world is not paying attention to the situation on the ground in North Korea, China is exploiting natural resources from that state.
China has significant dependence on North Korea for coal and other minerals. Possibly, it is also using cheap North Korean labour. More importantly, strategically North Korea is vital for China to keep US presence in the region checked.
Presently, the US has been replacing its earlier policy of “strategic patience” with the new policy of “strategic accountability”.
South Korea and the US are expected to undertake a joint military exercise from August 21 in the region. Now, the question is that Kim Jong-un has shown some maturity, but would Trump demonstrate restraint, either by cancelling or toning down this exercise?