Panama Papers: Nawaz Sharif out, his brother Shahbaz to be next PM, what next for Pakistan?
The Supreme Court of Pakistan’s verdict is out. Nawaz Sharif has followed the Pakistani tradition of vacating the prime minister’s chair before completing his term. He has been replaced by his brother Shahbaz Sharif, who till now was the chief minister of Punjab.
Interestingly, Shahbaz has been replaced by his son, ensuring the family remains in control. Shahbaz will only take over after 45 days, once he wins elections to parliament, till then there would be an officiating prime minister.
Interestingly, contrary to most claims, Nawaz has not been charged directly with cases relating to the Panama Papers, but for hiding details about his employment in the Dubai-based Capital FZE company, when he filed his nomination papers in 2013, for not justifying source of funds for his property in London and for the purchase of two companies.
It again brings to fore the words of a small-time politician in Pakistan, Javed Hashmi, who stated that "while politicians are being held accountable, army chiefs and the judiciary are not".
This decision has created instability in Pakistan. The stock market has begun tumbling, protestors have taken to the streets, security is high and the opposition is braying for blood.
The decision has indicted Nawaz’s entire family, thereby ensuring that his heir apparent, Maryam Nawaz, is also out of the picture. Clearly a planned move to remove the entire family from the political scene. This action could not have been of the judiciary alone, but would have the backing of the army chief.
Turmoil would only increase in the coming days. The opposition would demand early elections, well before the judgment on Nawaz is delivered by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). This would ensure that the family is kept away from the political scene and the public with fresh memories could vote the party out.
Imran Khan, the army’s pet, would lead the charge, certain to have the backing of the army.
The army, though controls the nation from behind the throne, however, was being affected as Nawaz was difficult to manoeuvre. He had to go to enable them to continue pushing their terror factory agenda. Pressure was mounting from all directions, the US was threatening to enhance cross-border strikes onto the Taliban and Haqqani network, camps and hideouts, India was retaliating with full-measure on the LoC, infiltrators were being culled on entering, separatists’ hands were being tied in knots by the NIA and Iran had begun firing across the border. The Pakistani army was being compelled to change strategy, and Nawaz was the "main block".
A missing link in the entire case appears to have been the Kulbhushan Jadhav episode in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The government accepted the court’s jurisdiction in the case, which it could have questioned and then nominated a firm, which had represented India before in the same court and lost. Further Pakistan’s preparations were seen to be incomplete, due to which they lost the appeal. The blame was on the government, not the army.
However, it was the army which was embarrassed as it has kept Jadhav hidden from even the government.
The only commonality between the army and Nawaz Sharif was China, where both met eye to eye. It is only the Chinese support that has kept the nation ticking, despite a failing economy. They have provided Pakistan with diplomatic support by preventing Hafiz Saeed being declared a global terrorist, who is the protégé of the deep state. The nation needs China to survive.
In the days ahead, as internal confusion reigns supreme, the army would tighten its hold over the polity. Shahbaz, though claiming to have better relations with the army, had irked them on earlier occasions when he refused to permit them to launch anti-terror operations in Punjab and questioned the head of their Inter Services Public Relations (DG ISPR), something that created a major furore between the army and the state, known as the Dawn (newspaper) Leaks. It led to the resignation of the information minister.
For India, despite rhetoric, nothing much would change. The Pakistani army cannot change its policies on its terror factories. It may change tack and enhance violations, for which we are prepared and would retaliate appropriately. It may enhance infiltration, for which we are again ready and prepared to cull those seeking to enter. It cannot change any situation for the separatists as it is beyond them.
Power may make them bold, but also make them foolhardy. Pakistan should remember, every time it has attempted something new, it has hurt them more.
The way things appear to be moving in Pakistan, Nawaz and his family would fade into the sunset in Dubai or London, akin to Pervez Musharraf, while his brother’s future would be decided with time.
Within the nation, the only option is to either shift the capital to Rawalpindi or shift the army headquarters to Islamabad, after all, the army would run the state, either surreptitiously or directly.