Rahul Gandhi seems to be gambling 2019 elections for winning 2017
March 11 is, without doubt, a very important date for Rahul Gandhi. For if he is not able to notch up a victory in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, yet another "we will introspect" line won't quite work.
His long New Year holiday when the candidate list for 40 seats in Punjab was kept hanging will come in for criticism. Though, of course, the Congress sycophants would conveniently blame Amarinder Singh for Punjab and the alliance with Akhilesh Yadav for UP to shield the Prince.
But, at this point, the opinion polls will give Rahul hope. The momentum is with him in both the key states, though the Congress would err if it underestimated Arvind Kejriwal's ability to score an upset in Punjab.
Let us assume for a moment that the Congress does well in these elections. Will it be then safe to assume that 2019 is just another knock away? No. On the contrary, if you look closely, Rahul Gandhi's strategy in Assembly elections so far reveal a confused thinking on the path ahead for the grand old party.
Rahul promised a party that will take time to rebuild but one that will eventually stand on its own legs. But having smelt the coffee, the Congress vice-president has realised that his party is no more than a national regional outfit. In most key states, it is an NPA and has to play second fiddle to a powerful regional ally. In some others, it needs an ally to take on its political rivals. The manner in which it has fought elections in Bihar and UP, give a sense of the party's real strength.
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| What Rahul Gandhi needs to do is to duplicate the Rajasthan template everywhere. |
Just look at the states of UP, Bihar, Tamil Nadu that together account for 159 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress is a junior partner in all the three states. The nature of its strength vis-a-vis its respective alliance partners in these states means they will leave no more than 40-odd Lok Sabha seats for the Congress to contest in 2019. Even if the Congress gets a strike rate of 50 per cent, the Hand will have just 20 seats in its clutch. Will it be good enough to lead a national government two years from now?
Even in states where it is not dependent on an ally, the Congress fares no better. Take the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka, that together send 70 MPs to the Lok Sabha. The Congress, thanks to its decision to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh ahead of the 2014 elections, is decimated in the residuary state, with no hope of revival.
It is likely to stay at 0/25 in Andhra. In Telangana, all its efforts to mount a challenge to the K Chandrasekhar Rao government have not borne fruit, with the party having more leaders than dedicated cadre. Besides, there is no saying how many in the party will bolt at an opportune moment. Expect next to nothing in Telangana.
Karnataka is the only big state the Congress is in power. The state goes to polls next year and whoever wins it, will have its nose ahead in 2019. But here too, anti-incumbency is at work with Deve Gowda hoping that neither the Congress nor the BJP gets a clear majority in the Vidhan Sabha, giving him the space to play kingmaker.
With the BJP wooing Dalit and Vokkaliga leaders from the Congress, it is quite possible that Siddaramaiah could look at an informal pre-poll understanding with his alma mater, the JD(S), and if need be, a post-poll arrangement. That will mean yet another state where the Congress will not be in the pink of health.
What Rahul needs to do is to duplicate the Rajasthan template everywhere. Sachin Pilot has transformed from a Lutyens' Delhi politician to a Rajasthan state leader. The Delhi durbar needs to encourage more regional chieftains to grow instead of feeling threatened by them. The party has not seen a mass regional leader since the demise of YS Rajasekhara Reddy in 2009.
It will also be a mistake to assume that the alliances forged in the last two years in the states will hold till 2019. The Congress alliance with the DMK has been under strain, with Rahul Gandhi himself making overtures to the AIADMK.
Even if the Congress wins 35-odd seats in the UP Assembly elections, it would be naive if it thinks the legislators won't be up for grabs. Breaking a legislature party whose MLAs have been elected more on the basis of the Akhilesh Yadav factor will not be too difficult for the SP, should it need the numbers. Also expect Akhilesh, if he emerges victorious, to bargain harder in 2019.
So a victory in UP on March 11 will at best make Rahul Gandhi feel and look good temporarily. In the long run, the win will do little to make the Congress stronger in key states.
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