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UP banks on the third phase to choose its chief minister

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Javed M Ansari
Javed M AnsariFeb 18, 2017 | 21:29

UP banks on the third phase to choose its chief minister

The Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections appear delicately poised with no perceptible wave or trend emerging in favour of any of the political parties. The fate of 140 seats lies sealed in the ballot boxes and, on February 19, voting will take place in 12 districts of the Awadh region to the decide the fate of another 69 seats.

The outcome of the third phase could possibly hold the key to which party will emerge victorious on March 11.

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The 12 districts of the Awadh region that go to the polls on February 19 are pockets that reporters' shorthand popularly referred to as "Samajwadi strongholds".

There is a large concentration of Yadav and Muslim voting groups in Awadh, which have traditionally voted for the Samajwadi Party. In the 2012 Assembly elections, the SP swept the region, winning 55 of the 69 seats.

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Conventional wisdom suggests that the SP will find it difficult to match its performance of 2012. Photo: Indiatoday.in

The scale of the SP's sweep can be gauged from the fact that in districts like Mainpuri, Etawah and Kanhaiya, it won all the 12 Assembly seats, while in Barabanki, it won all six seats, in Farrukhabad, it won three out of the four seats; in Hardoi it won six out of the eight seats; in Kanpur dehat it earned three out of the four seats, and in Kanpur central, it got five of 10 seats, while in Auraiya, it won all 3 seats. Even in Lucknow, it struck a rich harvest, winning seven of the nine seats.

The belt's influence is apparent, with Dimple Yadav - CM Akhilesh Yadav's wife - being the Lok Sabha MP from Kannauj, while the CM's cousin, Tej Pratap is an MP from Mainpuri and Shivpal Yadav, SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav's brother, contesting from the family seat of Jaswantnagar.

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Conventional wisdom suggests that the SP will find it difficult to match its performance of 2012. One of the main reasons is the fear of the internal sabotage, with Shivpal supporters suspected of working to undermine the candidates put up the chief minister. Second is the anti-incumbency factor that is working against some of the MLAs.

Many of them appear to have neglected their constituencies in the hope that come election time, the Yadav family will do the heavy lifting for them and eventually see them through.

In private, even the the political managers of the SP-Congress alliance admit to expecting a dip in their performance in the 12 districts. 

However, they are banking on the CM's goodwill and their traditional support base in the region to win at least 70 per cent of the seats so that it helps the alliance establish a perceptible lead over the BJP and the BSP going forward.

However, if SP fails to establish a clear lead, the going could get tough in the next couple of rounds. Demographics suggest the areas going to the polls in the next four rounds are not entirely SP strongholds - and in the remaining 206 seats, it will have to contend with strong performances from both the BJP and the BSP.

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Last updated: March 07, 2017 | 13:26
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