Predicting Gujarat election results by comparing BJP and Congress' campaign strategies
The campaign for Gujarat Assembly elections has finally come to an end. Its second phase marked the lowering of the political discourse to unprecedented, shameful levels by none less than the prime minister of India, Narendra Modi. In what has been an evenly-fought and shrill campaign, neither camp has pulled punches and remains optimistic of emerging victorious on December 18.
For the Congress, the campaign has signalled a revival of fortunes in a state where the party had almost given up trying. This campaign also marked the coming-of-age of their president-elect Rahul Gandhi, who has shouldered the entire campaign for almost three months. As for the BJP, it was struggling in many areas and may fall well short of its 2012 seat tally in the first phase. However, the party looks more confident as it goes into the second — and the last — phase in a slightly more polarised atmosphere.
The BJP is banking on its organisational strength as usual and prime minister Modi’s last push, to carry it over the ropes. The Congress, too, is trying to ensure cadre presence in the 50,000-plus polling booths. It has taken strident efforts to not let the BJP polarise the voters ahead of the election, even as Rahul Gandhi methodically visited almost every prominent temple in the state during his campaign.
Gujarat is a state with powerful temples, sects and religious preachers. Most Gujaratis are spiritual, temple-going people, who wear their religion on their sleeves. Though many spiritual preachers and temple trusts overtly claim to be apolitical, that’s hardly the case. For instance, Ramesh Oza, a widely popular kathavachak (bard), reportedly told his followers to not be disillusioned with GST and support Narendra Modi, “who is working tirelessly for the betterment of this country”. Similarly, Morari Babu, another popular kathavachak, has repeatedly praised PM Modi and made statements like “it is not often that a country gets a leader who follows dharma”.
The Swaminarayan Vadkal sect of the Patels has openly supported the BJP: at an event in November 2017, Ghanshyam Prasad Das, the chief administrator of the temple, reportedly stated that his organisation is forever indebted to the BJP, “...it is the fortune of the people to have a king who is pure, people-loving and visionary like Narendra Modi,” making a open appeal to the sect's devotees to vote for the BJP.
Others, like the BAPS Swaminarayan sanstha, have also been rooting for the BJP, albeit discreetly. Narendra Modi had participated in the silver jubilee celebrations of the temple in November 2017, when he held sect chief Swami Ji Maharaj’s hand on stage, giving a clear signal to the devotees ahead of the elections.
The Umiya Mata temple of the Kadva Patels and the Khodaldham temple of the Leuva Patels have, at least publicly, been apolitical. But even a subtle hint can have a huge impact and the BJP — in particular, Narendra Modi — have cultivated a relationship with most of the sects and their heads. Modi himself is a trustee of the famous Somnath temple, which has a following cutting across caste and community lines.
Rahul Gandhi and his party’s keenness to shed the “anti-Hindu” label attached to the party has to be seen in this light. While critics might dub this “soft-Hindutva” and draw parallels with Rajiv Gandhi’s 1989 campaign, it could well be a smart tactic based on the cold calculation that pulling off a win would necessitate this.
On my three-day visit to the state last week, I met a professor from Vadodara's Maharaja Sayajirao University, who had an interesting observation to make: “The Hindutva project is almost complete in Gujarat. Religiosity need not be confused with spirituality or morality in this state as religion itself has become a business and a symbol of power and influence. Do you know that Gujarat is ranked 24th when it comes to sex ratio?”
The prime minister has addressed 34 rallies in poll-bound Gujarat in his three visits to state in less than three weeks. BJP chief Amit Shah, too, has addressed an equal number of rallies while all the 42 star campaigners of the saffron party, including Union ministers and chief ministers, have addressed more than 500 public gatherings or rallies. While some see it as a sign of desperation, others say it is perfectly normal as the BJP has become an electioneering machine under the current dispensation.
A loss for the BJP would be the biggest setback yet for the Modi-Shah duo, which has witnessed a major drubbing only in Delhi and Bihar.
Meanwhile, Hardik Patel’s rallies and meetings have attracted the largest crowds — mostly the youth — despite the dirty tactics employed against him. It remains to be seen whether these crowds will translate into votes for the Congress. As an ally, Alpesh Thakor’s OBC Sena has added some muscle to the Congress, for the former has a presence in almost 80 constituencies in the state.
Dalit activist and icon Jignesh Mevani, too, has been an effective campaigner, though he appears on a sticky wicket in the Vadgam constituency. Veteran leader Shankersinh Vaghela’s exit has effectively been neutralised by the Congress and has also seen other leaders closing ranks. A senior leader I met in Ahmedabad chose to give Rahul Gandhi the credit for bringing about this unity. The apolitical taxi driver who drove me from Ahmedabad to Rajkot said he was impressed with Gandhi and chose to refer to him as "Rahulbhai".
While the media and pollsters are still backing the BJP as the odds-on favourite, the chatter on WhatsApp groups tells an entirely different story. The undercurrents are certainly being reflected on the social media. The urban-rural divide is another story that hasn’t yet reflected fully in the debates, with the BJP steadily losing its clout in rural areas since the 2015 local body polls.
One of the prominent constituencies I visited was Rajkot West, where Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani is contesting against the richest candidate in this election: Indranil Rajguru. A Brahmin, Rajguru is the sitting candidate in the adjacent Rajkot East constituency but has concentrated on this seat ever since it became known that the incumbent CM would be contesting from here. The constituency has a sizeable number of Brahmins, but Patel votes are likely to prove decisive here and the Khodaldham temple in the area might also influence the outcome.
Though it may seem from afar that the Congress doesn’t have a pan-Gujarat face to project in the polls and is heavily reliant on Rahul Gandhi and the young troika of Jignesh Mevani, Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor, that is not really the case. In fact, it is the Congress — with leaders like Shaktisinh Gohil, Arjun Modhwadhia, Siddharth Patel, Tushar Chaudhary and Paresh Dhanani apart from PCC chief Bharatsinh Solanki — that is stronger while Narendra Modi’s three terms as CM have led to the annihilation of a second rung of leaders in the BJP.
While the Congress looks to be on a stronger wicket as all it needs is a five per cent swing from its 2012 tally along with all the factors favouring it, the BJP remains moderately confident of pulling this off with its cocktail of Hindutva nationalism.
If the Congress still loses this election despite the effort, anti-incumbency and other cumulative factors, it will be a vindication of the professor's words: that the majoritarian project is complete in Gujarat, that BJP has developed an all-weather model.
But my heart says I should go by the words of a young Patel student I met in Ahmedabad: “BJP and Modiji will remain Gujarat’s first choice; but we will teach them a lesson this time to not take anyone for granted.”
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