Why Lebanon's happiest depressed people may end up more disappointed
Saturday, October 19, was a night fury and fire in Lebanon as protests grew across the nation with anger spilling onto the streets over its economic condition that has forced upon the country widespread joblessness and overall despondency.
A sea of people, some waving Lebanese flags, called for revolution in protests that resembled the 2011 Arab revolts that toppled four presidents. Even as the protesters raised their voices and organised small fires to draw attention to their misery, they sang and cheered, compelling many to claim that they were the "happiest depressed people" around.
Close observers say this is the biggest public uprising the country has seen since the 2005 Cedar Revolution that culminated in the end of the near-30-year-long Syrian military occupation of Lebanon.
Demands varied from finding employment and reducing taxes to improving health care, fighting corruption, and ultimately, getting rid of the country's sectarian ruling elite, which has been in power since the end of Lebanon's civil war almost 30 years ago.
Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world. The country has failed to find new sources of funding as foreign flow dried up.
According to the Lebanese finance ministry, the country's public debt stands at around US$ 86 billion — more than 150 per cent of gross domestic product.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have in the past bailed out Lebanon from crises, have failed to come to Prime Minister Saad Hariri's rescue this time.
The Lebanese have suffered as a result of tax hikes and dire economic conditions in the heavily indebted country.
But the spark that led to numerous small fires being lit on October 17 across the Middle Eastern country was a move from Saad Hariri's government to hike taxes, including a US$ 0.2 tax on calls via messaging apps such as WhatsApp and Facebook.
The minister of information, who announced the plans, also revealed a proposal to raise value added tax to 15 per cent by 2022.
Even though Hariri has withdrawn the tax on messaging apps, the protesters have turned their focus to wider grievances with the government, which has been accused of corruption and economic mismanagement.
Lebanese elite
There is overall disgruntlement in Lebanon with the elite of the country, whose wealth is reported to have risen at the cost of lakhs of ordinary people.
For about three decades, Lebanon has been ruled by an elite group of former warlords and militia leaders from the civil war, who later turned into politicians and statesmen.
On the one side of this spectrum is the Future Movement headed by PM Hariri, believed to be the ultimate representative of Lebanon's Sunnis. The Future Movement controls the country's prime ministership and is in-charge of telecommunications, interior, information and women empowerment.
The interior department and telecommunications are under direct fire because the former is accused of violently attacking peaceful protesters since October 17 and the telecommunications minister Mohammad Chocair is reportedly the brain behind the "WhatsApp tax".
Saad is the son of Rafic Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005, and is believed to have squandered much of the fortune inherited from the latter.
On the other hand is the Shiite coalition comprising Hezbollah and the Amal Movement. Both are believed to rely on support from Iran and drug trade. Hezbollah is in informal possession of Iran-made rockets and missiles, and a powerful guerrilla army.
And then there are the Maronites, a Christian group whose members adhere to the Syriac Maronite Church, with their largest population around Mount Lebanon. The most influential among the Maronites is the Free Patriotic Movement, headed by Gebran Bassil, who derives his influence from his ageing father-in-law, President Michel Aoun.
Sectarian divides
According to an agreement reached back in 1943, the Middle Eastern country is divided on sectarian lines, with each of the main sects holding a position in government — the president must be Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of parliament a Shia Muslim and so on.
Regional and sectarian divides feed into the power of these very powerful people. And Lebanese people vote along these sectarian lines.
Lebanon can roughly be divided into three mini-states based precisely on the power distribution: a) the Sunni strongholds of Beirut, Sidon, and Tripoli; b) the Iran-backed fiefdoms of the Shiites stretched across the Bekka Valley and the southern neighbourhood of Beirut, which is Hezbollah's stronghold; and c) Mount Lebanon and its Christian environs, divided between Aoun and Geagea.
Power in same hands
Sunnis vote for Hariri thinking that not doing so will lead to a Shia dominance in the country. This fear works vice versa as well. Christians, meanwhile, vote for Aoun and Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces. This is the reason why despite all the economic hardships and umpteen other problems, the country has been ruled by more or less the same people. And this is the reason, why even if the protesters succeed in persuading the administration to announce elections, the same group is likely to come back to power.
This protest is as spontaneous as it is leaderless. The agitators may succeed in securing minor concessions, but not really a political upheaval or the 'fall of the regime' as the 'happy protesters' are demanding.
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