Why data says Gujarat, not Maharashtra, is top on Covid-19 tracker
In their bid to save both lives and livelihood, the Centre and states have decided to go for unlocking the country despite a surge in the number of coronavirus cases.
The challenge is now to save both, which, of course, amounts to walking the tightrope. We are now well over a week into Unlock 1.0 and the unlocked economy brings with it the fear of increasing Covid-19 cases, and hence fatalities.
States are in a dire need to ramp up tax collection. With states spending money on creating infrastructure for the pandemic, the need for funds is even greater. However, they are faced with the fear of being called out for poor management if cases were to spike suddenly, and the health care facilities were to get overwhelmed.
States are in a sort of undeclared competition to keep the pandemic under control. Maharashtra has already crossed the 1,00,000 mark in terms of the positive cases. With 3,950 people dead in the state, the fatality numbers are also alarming.
While media and people have declared Maharashtra as the worst-performing state, the truth is slightly different.
In order to assess the performance of any state fighting Covid-19, one must acknowledge what the parameters of this performance metric are. The number of cases can be one such measure, but it limits our understanding of its spread. This may be indicative of the fact of how well a lockdown (policing) was implemented, executed, and impacted a particular state, and also how well was the state able to spread awareness about the disease. Other factors such as the population density of the state or region also contribute to the rising spread of the virus.
Therefore, going by the number of cases, Maharashtra may be top on the list in terms of numbers; however, if one were to estimate the performance of the healthcare infrastructure of a state, the death per case (DpC) is likely to anchor a more accurate state-specific data.
DpC can help estimate what happens after one is infected by the coronavirus. It can indicate the preparations of the state and the measures it can take to combat fatalities. Data at hand suggests that of the top 10 immensely impacted states and Union Territories, Gujarat tops the DpC list.
Gujarat has a DpC of 0.063, which surpasses the double of the national average of 0.027.
The graph well represents the DpC of Gujarat (0.063), West Bengal (0.043) and Madhya Pradesh(0.043). This metric indicates one’s chances of survival after contracting the disease in respective states after being infected with the novel coronavirus.
This graph is also indicative of the state of preparedness of various state governments with critical care units for those affected. Gujarat is one state that has registered over 23,000 active cases and 1,478 deaths in all, which accounts for the highest in the country, after Maharashtra.
On the contrary, Bihar, which lacks infrastructure in comparison to other states, shows 6,000 positive cases, and only 33 fatalities.
One must accept that Corona is here to stay. While we may not have control over those affected because of its asymptomatic existence, restricting fatalities is still pretty much in the hands of policy-makers.
States must thus focus on controlling fatalities and that’s how their performance should be judged. This, however, calls for a longer and detailed plan of action - more number of beds and critical care units at disposal to begin with.
If the governments can get this in place and lower the death rate, consider this a won war.
Also read: Are we heading towards deglobalisation post Covid-19?