Himachal Pradesh proves uphill task for Arvind Kejriwal's AAP. Why?

The polling in the mountain state of Himachal Pradesh is only six months away now. On April 6, 2022, AAP convener and Delhi chief minsiter Arvind Kejriwal held a massive rally in Mandi district, which is also the home of incumbent Himachal CM Jairam Thakur. Along with him was Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann.

Kejriwal, who can only be second to PM Modi in oratory skills held the mike and said, “Ham aam aadmi hai, hame rajneeti nahi aati, bas kaam karna aata hai ( We are common people. We don’t know how to do politics. We only know how to serve the people),"said Kejriwal during the rally, where he was joined by Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann.

Kejriwal cited the example of Punjab, where he claims that the AAP government has not just reduced corruption, but completely eradicated it.

With his statements in Mandi, AAP's Kejriwal has made it clear that just like Gujarat, the party is going to try and form the government in Himachal too.

STRING OF DEFECTIONS

On April 8, 2022, just two days after the mega roadshow by Kejriwal, cracks started to developing in the AAP unit in Himachal. By the evening, AAP’s state unit president Anup Kesari, Organisational General Secretary Satish Thakur and Una district chief Iqbal Singh joined the BJP in Delhi in the presence of JP Nadda and Anurag Thakur.

केजरीवाल ने सोचा था हिमाचल में सरकार बनाएँगे, आप को अब अपना संगठन बचाना मुश्किल हो गया है।आम आदमी पार्टी की महिला मोर्चा की प्रदेश अध्यक्ष श्रीमती महिला मोर्चा की प्रदेश अध्यक्ष श्रीमती ममता ठाकुर, उपाध्यक्ष श्रीमती सोनिया बिंदल व श्रीमती संगीता… pic.twitter.com/AXGkPuRu36

— Anurag Thakur (@ianuragthakur) April 11, 2022

Reportedly, the party workers were disappointed with Kejriwal for being negligent towards them despite of them working for the party for the past eight years in the state.

Further, on April 11, 2022, AAP’s state Mahila Morcha chief Mamta Thakur, Mahila Morcha vice-president Sangeeta, VP of Social media wing Ashish Kumar, and state president of industry wing DK Tyagi joined the BJP.

Following this exodus, the AAP on the same day dissolved all party units in the state. Signed by Satyendar Jain, who is the election in-charge in Himchal, the party said it is dissolving all units except the legislative assembly level unit of the party.

WHY HIMACHAL PRADESH WILL BE AN UPHILL TASK FOR AAP

1. A TRIANGULAR CONTEST UNLIKELY

Himachal Pradesh’s legislative assembly has 68 seats. In the past two decades, there have been dual contests between Congress and the BJP. Communist Party of India (Marxist) tried to make it triangular contest in 2017, but failed miserably and won just one seat.

For AAP, to emerge as a strong contender against the BJP which has 44 seats in the assembly is a tough task. The main opposition in the state assembly is Congress, which has 21 seats and 41.7% vote share, around 7.1% less than BJP which got 48.8 % votes in 2017. In such a scenario, it would be naive to expect the AAP to takeover Congress's position and challenge the BJP.

2. NO ADVANTAGE LIKE PUNJAB AND DELHI

If one looks at Delhi and Punjab, where the AAP has formed government, it looks clear that the AAP gained from the shaky ground of the Congress. Congress’s loss in these two states was AAP’s gain. For the AAP to gain inroads in Himachal, it will have to exploit the weak sections of the Congress, which seems extremely difficult to be done in next six months.

3. NO CM FACE

The BJP has a strong candidate in Jairam Thakur. On the other hand, Congress has its CM face in Virbhadra Singh who was the CM of the state from 2012-17. These two leaders can lead the party in the state. But, for AAP, to monitor and govern party activities in the absence of a formidable leader makes their job even tougher.

4. NO ANGER AGAINST CONGRESS

The AAP sees itself as potentia replacement for Congress in the state. It's not challenging the BJP because it knows that to beat the BJP election machinery in such a short span is next to impossible. Moreover, in Himachal the Congress has been a strong opposition to BJP since 2017.

There is not much resentment against the Congress in the state that the party’s voters, like in Delhi and Punjab, are going to shift to a third party that challenges the BJP. In such circumstances, AAP is unlikely to replace the Congress in a dual contest.

AAP can make some gains in the 68-member legislative assembly, but to say that it will be a game-changer in the politics of Himchal Pradesh would be too much.