ISIS' Baghdadi dead: What it means for India
Nearly a week long media speculation about death of the self proclaimed "Caliph" of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Abu Bakr al Baghdadi seems to have ended with The Guardian confirming that he was alive but incapacitated due to serious spinal injury suffered during a US-led air strike on his vehicle. The attack took place on March 18 near the Syrian border in Western Iraq. It quoted three sources, said to be close to the ISIS, to confirm that al Baghdadi "will never again lead the organisation".
Though initially, the US had said the Iran Radio report was incorrect now they seem to have accepted al Baghdadi's exit from the leadership after more details on his present status came out in the media. So al Baghdadi is now hors de combat in the ISIS' war in Iraq and Syria. And that should be good news not only for the US and its allies but every country because the wide world had become the hunting ground for Islamic youth motivated by the ISIS' success.
It was Abu Bakr al Baghdadi imaginative leadership that turned the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) to look beyond its home turf to morph into the ISIS, the world's most dreaded Jihadi terror group. As King of Jordan said in a CNN interview, the ISIS seems to have appealed to "the depressed, deluded and disillusioned jihadi cadres and Islamic youth" the world over.
The ISIS also provided space for foreign jihadi cadres to articulate their ideas using modern IT tools to effectively propagate its philosophy and activities in their homeland and from Europe to countries as far as Australia. They had originally come to fight the Assad regime in Syria perhaps with the tacit understanding of the West when the Syrian war started. Al Baghdadi managed to turn the tables on the Western strategic planners to prove he has the right mix of leadership, ideology and military strategy.
The ISIS' spectacular success in Syria capturing large tracts of Sunni habited areas in 2014 paved way for the formation of the Islamic state of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). But al Baghdadi's masterstroke was the proclamation of the Islamic caliphate with al Baghdadi as the caliph. The ingenious move gave form to the ephemeral concept of Nizam-e-Mustafa (Rule of Allah) to take ISIS beyond the realm of jihadi terror groups. With the Caliphate came the call for pan Islamic movement for the Rule of Allah that has always had strong appeal to conservative Muslims and clerics everywhere.
Al Baghdadi announced the formation of the Caliphate disregarding the ruling of the all-powerful al Qaeda chief Ayman al Zawahiri to confine ISIS activities to Iraq only, speaks for al Baghdadi's strong faith in his own assertive leadership style. So it is not surprising the ISIS has found support from large sections of Islamic clergy as well as many Jihadi terror groups like the Boko Haram in Nigeria and sections of the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan pledgint their loyalty to the Caliphate.
The ISIS' foreign jihadists with their knowledge of the western idiom and languages has come in handy for the group to grab global media attention after they launched a propaganda blitz using the social media to attract Islamic youth. ISIS visuals of jihadi fighters' gory beheading of "infidel" Western journalists and slaughtering of soldiers with the cadres delivering their messages in flawless English did more than keeping the ISIS in headlines; they appealed to sections of Islamic youth who feel impotent to channelise their rage at the injustice meted out by American air and drone strikes across the Islamic world killing scores of civilians in drone strikes with impunity. For them al Baghdadi probably looked to be the leader they were waiting for to rally their strengths. Al Baghdadi also seems to have provided a rallying point for the motley collection of jihadi groups which were adrift after Osama bin Laden, the charismatic Al Qaeda leader, was killed by American SEALS in Pakistan.
Al Baghdadi's exit from leadership comes at a crucial time when the ISIS is fighting to hold on to its territorial gains in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq the army supported by the Shia militia managed to recapture part of the territory it had lost earlier. The US-led coalition air strikes against the terror group are taking a heavy toll of ISIS. Across the world from the US to Europe to Australia ISIS sympathisers are being hunted out and its cells busted. Even Saudi Arabia is rounding up all ISIS supporters, blocking the vital flow of financial support from the country. On the other hand, the al Qaeda seems to becoming the flavour of the day after its Yemeni counterparts occupied Aden and successfully stemmed the onward march of Houthi Shia rebel militia who had driven out the Yemen government.
According to reports ISIS deputy leader Abu Alaa al Afri is leading the organisation now. Al-Afri is a long term associate of ISIS with strong credentials to assume the leadership; but the moot question is will he be able to lead the organisation at a ctitical time? Under the leadership of al Baghdadi the organisation had exploited windows opportunity offered by the weakness of the enemy to its advantage. Unless al Afri can keep up the momentum generated by al Baghdadi, ISIS cadres may cross over to the al-Nusra Front, their parent affiliate which is very much intact. They also have the option of joining al Qaeda whose fortunes seem to be on the ascent after its strong show in Yemen.
Usually, when terrorist groups are not active internal schism comes to the fore. This is what happened to the LTTE during the ceasefire period in 2002-04 when its eastern wing leader Karuna quit the organisation over leadership issues. Ultimately the damage done to the Tamil Tigers by the split contributed ultimately to its defeat in the Eelam War.The ISIS may face a similar fate if al-Afri cannot manage the groups and motivate them.
There is also the issue of the Caliphate; if al Afri fails to make the cut to become the Caliph soon, the second Caliphate may well become the shortest lived one. And that could kill its affinity to conservative sections of Islam vital for its legitimacy. That could make the call 'Caliph is dead; long live the Caliph' yet another grand idea for glory fading into irrelevance.
As far as India is concerned with the recent powerful bomb attacks by ISIS in Jalalabad and al Qaeda operations in Kuduz in Afghanistan, the message is clear. The ISIS here and now in addition to the Taliban knocking on our doors. The worst case scenario is if they forms an opportunistic alliance to spread their footprint in India. As Afghan President Ghani said during his recent New Delhi visit, "The shadow of terror haunts our children, women and youth. Terror must be confronted and must be overcome.'' Let us not ignore it.