What does the RK Nagar bypoll mean for AIADMK?
In terms of optics, it was politically incorrect. At a time when cyclone Ockhi is ravaging several districts in southern Tamil Nadu, the top two of the AIADMK - Edappadi Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam - chose to be by the side of the party candidate, E Madhusudanan in RK Nagar assembly constituency instead of leading ground operations from the front in this time of distress.
In his backyard in western Tamil Nadu in Coimbatore, Palaniswami's party colleagues are more busy making arrangements for the December 3 MGR centenary event rather than mobilising cadre to work in the cyclone-affected areas.
The AIADMK could not care to indulge in the right form of political messaging. Because from its point of view, RK Nagar which elected Jayalalithaa twice to the Tamil Nadu assembly in 2015 and 2016, is politically important as it could make or break its political fortunes. The constituency will see a bypoll on December 21, eight months after the previous attempt to hold an election came a cropper in the face of massive distribution of cash.
On the face of it, the AIADMK would fancy its chances, especially after the merger and the victory in the Election Commission, when the two leaves symbol was allotted to it. But there are several factors that go against the ruling party.
1.) Jayalalithaa won from RK Nagar in 2015 by a margin of 1.5 lakh votes because none of the opposition parties barring the CPI put a candidate. But the following year, her margin was down to 39,000 votes, with the DMK candidate bagging 57,000 votes. What is interesting is that the Election Commission has removed 45,000 bogus voters from the electoral list and the opposition's allegation is that these voters were fraudulently added before 2016.
Given that TTV Dhinakaran, the other candidate with an AIADMK DNA is also in the fray, a split in the Jayalalithaa votebank is certain.
2.) The AIADMK despite the merger is not seen as a cohesive unit. There is extreme trust deficit between the EPS and OPS camps, that seem to have been stuck together with the band-aid of power and the heavy hand of Delhi. The feeling in the OPS camp is that its leaders gained nothing from the ghar waapsi and in the bargain, OPS too has lost the halo he seemed to have acquired after the February revolt. Already OPS confidant, V Maitreyan has articulated the camp's impatience with the treatment it is getting, pitching it as the feeling of the rank and file.
Given that Madhusudanan is seen as an OPS man, will the EPS camp put its heart and soul into the campaign? It is to be noted that Madhusudanan was not the first choice of the EPS faction, that wanted its own man N Balaganga to contest. The CM will be more than aware that a Madhusudanan victory will be used to OPS to project himself as Jayalalithaa's political successor and will encourage him to draw up a list of demands. EPS will be wary of a politically more aggressive OPS.
3.) The traditional AIADMK votebank has shrunk in the last one year because there is a sense of weariness with the never-ending internal politics of the party. This means the electorate in RK Nagar cannot be trusted to blindly vote for the two leaves symbol. They are bound to assess the standard of governance in the last one year and vote accordingly. In that sense, RK Nagar that is home to a huge migrant population will become almost like a referendum on the AIADMK.
4.) What effect will the two leaves symbol have? It is a shot in the arm but certainly not a foolproof weapon against defeat. Do not forget that even with the two leaves, Jayalalithaa did taste defeat in 1996 and 2006 assembly polls.
5.) The distribution of money by all political parties is part of the Tamil Nadu election circus. But the EC will be once bitten, twice shy in RK Nagar and is deploying a large number of surveillance teams to ensure no candidate is able to buy votes with cash. The EPS camp which saw health minister C Vijaybasker being raided in April will be careful not to burn its fingers this time around. The EC will make it a prestige issue to conduct a free and fair poll, to the maximum extent possible.
The AIADMK will hope for an adverse verdict against the DMK leaders in the 2G case, whose verdict will be announced anytime after 5 December. But while a DMK victory or loss will not change anything dramatically for MK Stalin, an AIADMK loss is certain to bring to the fore the faultlines within the party. December 24 when the results will be announced, could well mark the beginning of yet another round of politicking in Tamil Nadu.