AIADMK merger: Cleaning up the mess in Tamil Nadu
The CEO of the company decides to sack the vice-chairman. The VC protests, arguing it is only the Chairman who appointed him in the first place, who can show him the door. But the Chairman is in prison and has given the VC the power of attorney. Meanwhile, a bigger group is looking to make a hostile takeover and is nudging the CEO to take back some disgruntled employees who were earlier sacked by the Chairman.
That in a nutshell, is the story of the AIADMK.
Hours after Edappadi Palaniswami decided to hand over TTV Dhinakaran the pink slip, the latter hit back, calling the Tamil Nadu chief minister a "420". Stressing that only his aunt VK Sasikala who appointed him on February 15, just before going to Bengaluru prison, can remove him, Dhinakaran questioned Palaniswami's locus standi in showing him the door.
In the meanwhile, with active encouragement from the BJP, the Palaniswami and Panneerselvam camps are coming together to see if they can make their relationship work, if Dhinakaran is out of the picture. But in a world as raucous as the Tamil soap operas, making all the AIADMK politicians stick together with the fevikwik of power, would be easier said than done.
In the divided house the AIADMK is now, the knives are out in the open. In the political jungle of Tamil Nadu, it will be the survival of the fittest. The definition of "fittest" as defined by the Delhi durbar. Quite a fall for the regional party that under Jayalalithaa used to treat Delhi with scorn and keep it at arm's distance.
A naive understanding of the wheels within wheels politics of the AIADMK tells you that if OPS and EPS come together, throw out the Mannargudi family, all will be hunky dory. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Since February, when OPS revolted, there has been much bad blood between the two groups. But contrary to expectations, OPS, despite being given all the backing from non-AIADMK players, failed to make a dent on the ruling faction and EPS managed to consolidate himself as CM.
The deal being worked out is to give the control of the party and the government to both OPS and EPS. While EPS will remain CM, OPS will head the party. But with the Gounder community to which EPS belongs wanting a share in the party power structure as well, EPS is likely to come in as the deputy to OPS in the party.
There is also pressure on OPS to enter the cabinet as deputy CM. Panneerselvam is reluctant to be a minister unless he is made the CM and also because it will be extremely awkward for a three-time chief minister to be deputy CM.
Whether this would prove to be an ideal working relationship or a recipe for disaster and confusion, time only will tell. At least for public posturing, it is also difficult for OPS to make a comeback unless his twin conditions - purging the AIADMK of the entire Mannargudi family and ordering a probe into Jayalalithaa's death - are met.
Also the AIADMK under MGR and Jayalalithaa survived as a one leader party, with no effective second-in-command. Even though Sasikala was said to call the shots during Jayalalithaa's tenure, she was given no formal position either in the government or in the party. For the rank and file, a dual power structure will be a novelty and could lead to new faultlines emerging. The fact that OPS and EPS belong to two different power communities - the Thevars and the Gounders respectively - will add its bit to the tension as well.
The impression that AIADMK is kowtowing to the BJP that is seen, at least in Tamil Nadu, as a cowbelt party that emphasises on Hindi as the language of communication, isn't good news for the party. That is precisely the point the Dhinakaran camp and the DMK are pointing out. Dhinakaran supporters have expanded OPS to "Old Permanent Servant" and EPS as "Effective Powerful Servant" of the BJP.
The next five days promise to be action-packed in Tamil Nadu. Now that EPS has shown the "Quit AIADMK" placard to Dhinakaran, Independence Day is when EPS and OPS are expected to come together with a placard, that says, "And they lived happily ever after".