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The moment of truth for Modi

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Minhaz Merchant
Minhaz MerchantDec 13, 2018 | 14:15

The moment of truth for Modi

Where has the Modi government succeeded and where has it failed over its 55 months in office?

Whichever way rival politicians spin it, the five state Assembly elections have thrown up several lessons for both the BJP and the Congress.

First, losing Chhattisgarh to the Congress in a near-rout is a severe indictment of the BJP’s development agenda.

Second, though a Congress sweep in Rajasthan didn’t materialise, a narrow majority in the state is sufficient to please the Congress.

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Third, the failure of the TDP-Congress alliance in Telangana could stem Chandrababu Naidu’s rise as a key player in the 2019 mahagathbandhan.

Also, the Congress’ loss to the MNF in Mizoram means it has now been wiped out in all seven northeastern states. Moreover, the victory in Madhya Pradesh gives the Congress significant momentum in the Hindi heartland ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal has been significantly eroded. (Photo: Reuters)

Rural distress

Beyond the micro numbers though lies a larger home truth: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal has been significantly eroded.

Rural distress is a harsh reality in the Hindi heartland. The Modi government’s welfare schemes have made an impact but delivery has been patchy.

The 2019 Lok Sabha election will be a referendum on the Modi government’s economic performance.

The BJP will hope that in a national election, the Modi versus Rahul Gandhi face-off will work in its favour. That may no longer be true. Rahul has improved as a campaigner.

At 48, he exudes energy that sits well with young aspirational Indians. He lacks Modi’s charisma, but Modi himself risks becoming repetitive if he continues to harp on the Congress’ record of past governance, however appalling it may have been.

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Voters are no longer interested in the past. They want a better future and if key demographics like farmers and Dalits aren’t getting it from the BJP, they will switch to the Congress or a regional UPA ally.

Where has the Modi government succeeded and where has it failed over its 55 months in office?

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Ram Mandir can only work for the BJP on a foundation of development. (Photo: Reuters)

It has succeeded in providing a corruption-free administration at top levels of the government, though local level corruption remains endemic.

It has also succeeded in delivering improved sanitation, rural electrification, health insurance, infrastructure, bankruptcy reform and direct transfer of subsidies to the poor through digitisation.

The failures though have been stark.

Creating jobs for India’s burgeoning youthful population remains a serious problem. The medium and small sector is reeling from a liquidity crisis caused by poor oversight of the banking sector. The complex technological compliance architecture of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has driven several small businesses to closure. Technology is an enabler. But when a poor farmer wants to access a cash subsidy on a mobile phone in a village with poor internet connectivity, he spends an entire day taking the help of a sarpanch who creams 30 per cent of the subsidy.

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Rahul lacks Modi’s charisma, but Modi himself risks becoming repetitive if he continues to harp on the Congress’ failure. (Photo: Reuters) 

Failing strategies

Looking forward to the 2019 Lok Sabha election, what does Modi need to do to reverse the state-level trend of anti-incumbency? The old chestnut that state Assembly elections are fought on local issues and parliamentary elections on national issues no longer holds water. The same issues of rural distress and urban weariness resonate everywhere.

The temptation for Modi and BJP president Amit Shah following the defeats in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh will be to place deity over development.

The Ram Mandir could take centrestage after January 2019 when the Supreme Court hears the title suit in the Ayodhya case. While the Ram Mandir holds emotive value, it can only work for the BJP on a foundation of development.

Without relieving rural and especially farmer distress, Mandir politics will not be enough to get the BJP over the finishing line in 2019. The biggest failure of the Modi government has been mismanagement of alliance partners.

For the first four years of its tenure, the BJP largely ignored its NDA allies, rarely convening meetings to discuss strategy. It reaped the whirlwind in its fifth year. Chandrababu Naidu was the first big ally to leave. Several others have followed. The Shiv Sena continues to snipe daily at the BJP, while the JD(U) is a sulky, reluctant partner.

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At 48, Rahul exudes energy that sits well with young aspirational Indians. (Photo: Reuters)

Admitting mistakes

All of this is bad news for Modi. But he must accept responsibility for it. After nearly five years in office, a Lok Pal is not in place. Information commissioners have not been appointed in time, leading to an erosion in the RTI’s effectiveness.

The government, never long on talent, has lost many outstanding individuals, most notably former Niti Aayog vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya and former RBI governor Urjit Patel.

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The government, never long on talent, has lost many outstanding individuals. (Reuters photo of Urjit Patel)

Does this mean that it’s game over for the Modi government in 2019?

Is Modi destined to be a one-term prime minister like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao?

Not necessarily.

Cleavages in the Opposition abound.

In a Modi versus Rahul contest nationally, Modi could still drag the BJP to over 200 Lok Sabha seats. But with prickly allies, that won’t be enough. The Opposition will use the lessons of the five Assembly elections to carve out state-level alliances.

The 2019 Lok Sabha poll may not be a redux of 2004, simply because the Congress may not cross 100 seats, but it could have shades of 1996, when a khichdi government of the United Front led by Deve Gowda and Inder Kumar Gujral, supported by the Congress from the outside, lasted all of 21 months.

History has an awkward habit of repeating itself and no one knows that better than Modi.

(Courtesy of Mail Today)

Last updated: December 13, 2018 | 14:15
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