Elections will expose Modi's gamble with India's economy

The very high turnouts in the Punjab and Goa elections, of 78 per cent and 83 per cent, respectively, are a clear example of anti-incumbency.

In both states, the ruling SAD-BJP coalition in Punjab and the BJP in Goa appear to be on the way out. In Punjab, the AAP has emerged as a major force battling the Congress.

Though Captain Amarinder Singh is the foremost leader in the state, the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has made major inroads into the dominant Malwa region, and among Punjabi Hindus, Dalits and, of course, the Sikhs.

A major issue in both states is demonetisation. In Goa, for 14 days ending on January 9, the anti-noteban sentiment I observed against PM Narendra Modi and the BJP was overwhelming.

Though defence minister and former Goa CM Manohar Parrikar campaigned hard and long in the state, he is unlikely to be able to turn the tide.

Other issues such as stoppage of the English language stipend in schools are very unpopular, and the Roman Catholic Archbishop was highly critical of poor governance in Goa.

Here, since AAP is a new force without sufficient influence in the panchayats which are a critical political-social force, the Congress appears to be ahead. But since there are many small parties in the fray, there could be a hung Assembly.

And Punjab? AAP started with a bang. Thereafter there were a number of fissures culminating in 30 important AAP leaders leaving the party, including Dharamvira Gandhi, MP, and Sucha Singh Chottepur, then AAP's Punjab convener.

This stalled AAP's momentum but Kejriwal along with local leaders like the charismatic Bhagwant Singh Mann and HS Phoolka, a noted campaigner for justice for Sikh victims in the 1984 riots, rejuvenated the AAP campaign.

Rahul Gandhi stalled the announcement of Amarinder Singh as the CM candidate, weakening the Congress campaign. So what will emerge?

Many commentators think AAP has the edge. But a 2 per cent shift in votes can mean a major swing.

The major state going to elections is, of course, Uttar Pradesh. UP results will have a particularly important impact. It is the largest and most populous state with the maximum Assembly and parliamentary seats.

Its run-up to the elections is symptomatic of the challenges and weaknesses of the current electoral system. Firstly, the BJP manifesto. It has called for building of the Ram Mandir, on the ruins of the so-called Babri Masjid, though Babar never reached Ayodhya.

The Masjid was destroyed in December 1992, while the Congress PM PV Narasimha Rao stood by, as civil society reports pointed out later. But what has the Sangh Parivar done in the last 24-plus years?

Has it built the Ram Mandir when it has been in power? No! Has it been held up by judicial intervention? If so, how can it build the Ram Mandir in the next five years? What has changed, apart from communal politics?

Not satisfied with this, the NDA has also accused the Samajwadi Party of permitting the forced cleansing of Hindus from a part of UP. This has been a clear attack on secularism and truth. But what are the judiciary and the Election Commission doing?

The Supreme Court has been harassed and humiliated by the government, which has refused to accept most of its recommendations to the higher courts. The UPA-II, which sought to bring in the National Judicial Accountability Commission (NJAC), and its successors have not moved decisively to protect the judiciary.

Thus, these and other elections in this round will be impacted by the breakdown of democratic institutions including the Reserve Bank of India. Why was RBI governor Urjit Patel supine when PM Modi rammed through demonetisation without any systematic planning and emergency backup?

Why did the RBI have so little valuable information that the RBI governor was unable to answer parliamentary committees, including the Public Accounts Committee (PAC)? Why did the RBI keep shifting and changing its own 60-plus notifications, leading bankers to joke that the Reserve Bank of India had become the Reverse Bank of India?

Due to this abdication of responsibility, large areas of UP including Western UP are severely impacted by recession. Eastern UP is even worse off. Cash flows in near to four months remain low and quite inadequate, despite Modi's promise to the nation that he would resolve all demonetisation issues in 50 days.

This is going to be a major issue along with communalism in the forthcoming Assembly election. Elections also bring out the worst in political parties, especially the declining ones.

The Congress insisted on a 100+ Assembly seats, well more than its strength. If they had reduced their demands, UP CM Akhilesh Yadav could have accommodated the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Now the Jats are estranged.

Though the Bahujan Samaj Party is a major force in some areas, the people will soon size up whom the likely winners are. So most estimate that the SP-Congress alliance will win, and likely get a majority. But these are predictions. The people will decide. Their votes will prevail.

At the end of the day, it seems that secular parties will win or at least get more secular victories combined than the BJP and allies in both Punjab and Goa. Demonetisation will play a major role. Modi's gamble with the economy will be exposed.

Also read: Now voting: Punjab is witnessing a political churn