BJP is walking into Uttar Pradesh’s dynasty trap

Is dynasty back? In America, there are little Trumps popping up everywhere — Donald junior, Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner (Ivanka Trump’s husband and president Donald Trump’s newly appointed senior advisor).

In Uttar Pradesh it’s even worse. Nine members of Samajwadi Party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav’s clan are contesting the 2017 assembly election, including 26-year-old Aparna Yadav, wife of Mulayam’s younger son Prateek.

The Rahul Gandhi-Akhilesh Yadav “Ganga-Yamuna” alliance, as Rahul pertly put it, symbolises the dynastic fervour spreading across India.

Priyanka Gandhi is, meanwhile, laying the ground work for her putative electoral debut from Rae Bareli in the 2019 general elections when she is likely to inherit the constituency from mother Sonia Gandhi.

The BJP, despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stern warning against family members of serving politicians contesting elections, is pressing ahead with its own dynastic debutants. Home minister Rajnath Singh’s son Pankaj Singh will contest from Noida while senior leader Kalyan Singh’s grandson Sandeep will stand from Atrauli.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP’s Ritu Khanduri Bhushan, former chief minister BC Khanduri’s daughter, will contest from Yamkeshwar constituency.

A Banerjee dynasty is, meanwhile, being seeded in West Bengal: Abhishek Banerjee, Mamata Banerjee’s ambitious and wealthy nephew, a Lok Sabha MP, is firmly in charge of Trinamool Congress (TMC) affairs.

Mayawati’s brother Anand Kumar, currently under criminal investigation, has allegedly amassed huge wealth though a complex web of companies during his sister’s four terms as UP chief minister. He is proving again, if further proof was needed, how profitable dynastic politics can be.

Political dynasties are not restricted to India. In France, for example, Marine Le Pen, daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, has emerged as a populist without some of her father’s racist rhetoric. She is though unlikely to win the 2017 French presidential election, where Francois Fillon is the right-of-centre favourite.

So is political dynasty really back? Yes and no. In Asia and the Middle East it never went away. But in Europe and America, it is still the exception, not the rule.

For example, despite having a father (George H Bush) and a brother (George W Bush) as past presidents, Jeb Bush was clobbered in the 2016 Republican primaries. Hillary Clinton, despite being married to a former president, lost to a man who had never held elected office: Donald Trump.

What about Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, former prime minister Pierre Trudeau’s charismatic son? Doesn’t he prove that dynasty works even in the West?

No, it doesn’t. Canada has had 23 prime ministers since 1867. Justin Trudeau is the first Canadian prime ministerial dynast in 150 years.

Ditto America. Since 1789 when George Washington became the first US president, there have been just three dynastic American presidents in 228 years (the Adams, Harrisons and Bushes). Of these, the Adams and Harrisons lived in the 19th century. George W Bush is the only US dynast-president in over a century (the Roosevelts, Theodore and Franklin, were fifth cousins and don’t count).

No de Gaulle or Churchill dynasty exists. The children of Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher are not remotely connected with politics.

In the US, the farthest Caroline Kennedy’s career went was her appointment as ambassador to Japan. Daughter of president John F Kennedy, she declined an opportunity to contest the New York senate seat.

Priyanka, the next dynast?

In India, the Congress is betting on Priyanka to revive its fortunes in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Sonia is likely to hand over Rae Bareli (like a family heirloom, never mind the constituency’s debilitating poverty) to Priyanka just as Rahul inherited Amethi from father Rajiv (who in turn had taken it over from brother Sanjay).

The real reason Priyanka will not campaign outside Rae Bareli and Amethi in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections is that her “brand” could be tarnished if the Congress fails, despite her UP-wide campaign, to win more than 25-odd seats. If the SP-Congress alliance does well, Priyanka and Rahul will share the credit. If it does badly, Priyanka will be protected from the blame.

It is vital for the Congress to ensure that Priyanka’s vote-getting charisma — so far untested and only part of Congress lore — is not prematurely damaged. The 2019 general election is when Priyanka will be formally launched. Any over-exposure before that could do more harm than good.

Priyanka’s relatively low-key campaigning will also serve another key purpose: Rahul’s primacy in the Congress, once Sonia steps aside as president, will not be undermined by those clamouring for a larger role for Priyanka.

Rahul and Priyanka share a close bond. Priyanka will do nothing to upset her brother’s political applecart (he is of course perfectly capable of doing it himself without outside help).

In the end, political dynasts have to be judged by performance. In the Congress, the Scindias, Deoras, Prasadas, Hoodas and Gandhis have done little to inspire confidence. The exception is Sachin Pilot but again that tends to prove the rule: dynasty rarely works.

In fields where only performance counts — for example, sport — dynasty has long been discounted. None of the sporting greats — Rod Laver, Donald Bradman, Pelé, Mansoor Ali Khan Pataudi – have produced dynastic champions. In sport, there are no second chances, no fiefdoms to fall back on.

Public life should be the same. Dynastic politics narrows the choice voters have in a democracy. When nine members of Mulayam’s family stand for election on the strength of a family name, they deprive nine others who can claim merit but not family.

Run by dynasts for decades — from the Bahugunas to the Yadavs — UP’s continuing poverty and backwardness couldn’t offer a more compelling argument against dynastic politics. It’s a lesson the BJP’s UP dynasts may learn the hard way.

Also read: UP polls: BJP fails to keep promise of freeing its party of dynasty politics