Why exit poll won’t decide who’s winning 2017 Assembly elections
Assembly elections 2017 are finally over and what seemed like a never-ending tele-opera has finally reached its penultimate episode. The exit polls are on their way and we will soon see media pundits, psephologists, big journalists staking their reputations on calling the results.
The bigger the wager, the better. But is it?
While many are predicting a BJP landslide in at least four of the five state elections, just how accurate have the exit poll predictions been in the past?
Take the Delhi elections, for instance. In 2015, while everyone expected BJP to make that perfect score again – seven out of seven as they had during the Lok Sabha polls – the results not only stumped us, it threw off guard the best and the brightest in the industry. The newbie and the greenhorn Aam Aadmi Party scored perhaps the biggest ever victory in the history of Delhi elections, bagging 67/70 seats.
BJP got a meagre three, Congress none.
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| Photo: Reuters |
Similarly, in Bihar later that year, even as the election results were coming out and votes counted, NDTV ran with a pre-concluded result that said BJP was expected to win big time. It was only after a good hour or so that they realised that the ground reality was completely different and it was the Mahagathbandhan – between Lalu Prasad Yadav of RJD and Nitish Kumar of JDU – that walked away with the prize.
In 2016, during the West Bengal elections, “predictions” that the Left-Congress alliance – called “Jot” – would wear the crown and stop Didi’s juggernaut. But Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress came back with an even bigger mandate than the last time.
Not only within India, even the predictions on last year’s international elections, such as Brexit and the US presidential elections, confounded everyone. Nobody in the media and policy echo chambers expected Britain to exit the European Union, Donald Trump to become the president of the United States.
However, not every time did they get it wrong. Exit polls too are not homogenous and often differ widely in their estimates. For example, during west Bengal elections last year, Chanakya had predicted 210 for TMC, C-voter had it at 167, while Axis Poll went overboard with 243. In the end, it was Chanakya which clinched it.
Similarly, India Today accurately guessed the anti-incumbency in Kerala, in which the United Democratic Front government led by Oommen Chandy was defeated by Left Democratic Front and Pinarayi Vijayan became the chief minister after the victory.
As the election results for Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur are eagerly awaited, the exit polls nevertheless become prestige battles of passive aggressive journalism. Sometimes they are test of accuracy, while at other times, last minute efforts to go with the tide.
But which way the tide would turn?
So, should we learn from the past and exercise caution while receiving the exit polls? Yes. Because that’s not the gospel truth. For that we need to wait until March 11.