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Muslims hold the key to Bihar elections

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Kumar Shakti Shekhar
Kumar Shakti ShekharSep 11, 2015 | 15:31

Muslims hold the key to Bihar elections

The bugle has officially been sounded for Bihar Assembly elections, which will be contested in five phases. Battle lines have also largely been drawn - it will broadly be a bipolar contest with the BJP-led NDA pitted against the “secular alliance” of JD(U), RJD and Congress, christened “maha-gathbandhan” or grand alliance (GA). The Left parties, NCP and SP form the third front but they are marginal players. As far as issues are concerned - which are intricately entwined also with the vote banks - they will revolve generally around caste, governance and religion.

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The NDA and GA are more or less evenly poised on issues relating to caste and governance. However, religion will be the clinching factor for victory for either of the combinations. It is here that Muslims hold the key to victory in Bihar and GA has an edge over its opponent, the NDA. But the entry of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) will spoil this equation and the balance will tilt in favour of NDA.

1. Caste

This is the most complex character of Bihar elections which has generated maximum curiosity among the political parties, political pundits and psephologists for years at length. It is hard to predict which way a caste or majority of their voters would exercise their franchise. It remains a riddle till the results are announced. There are three broad sub-groups of caste, of course with overlaps and crisscrosses – OBCs, Dalits and upper castes.

A. OBCs

They account for the largest section of population at 51 per cent (Yadavs – 14 per cent, Koeris – 8 per cent, Kurmis – 4 per cent and EBCs – 24 per cent, including Kushwahas – 4 per cent and Telis – 3 per cent). There are over 130 castes among the OBCs as per the Central list. They are the most sought after by all the political parties as they play a decisive role in victory of any party by their sheer numerical strength. But no alliance has the sole support of the OBCs.

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While RJD supremo Lalu Prasad claims the en bloc support of Yadavs, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar does the same of Kurmis (to which he belongs), Keoris and the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). However, the BJP has made inroads in Lalu’s Yadav vote bank. The BJP has concentrated on creating its own battery of Yadav leaders like Nand Kishore Yadav (leader of Opposition in the Bihar Assembly), Ram Kripal Yadav (Union minister of state for drinking water and sanitation), Hukumdev Narayan Yadav (Lok Sabha MP from Madhubani) and Bhupender Yadav (BJP's national general secretary in-charge of Bihar elections and Rajya Sabha MP from Rajasthan) to pose a challenge to Lalu. Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav, who defeated JD(U) president Sharad Yadav in the Madhepura Lok Sabha constituency in 2014 on an RJD ticket, has created his own outfit – Jan Adhikar Party - after revolting against Lalu's "dynasty politics". He is now seeking alliance with the BJP. Even Yadavs, particularly the youth, had deserted Lalu in 2014 Lok Sabha elections for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s developmental politics.

Among other BJP politicians, former deputy chief minister and BJP’s one of the most influential leaders in Bihar, Sushil Modi, also belongs to the OBC category. The BJP also has support base among the EBCs. Union minister of state for human resource development Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) is an NDA ally in the state. Nitish’s support among EBCs has eroded considerably ever since he broke away from the BJP. A large section of EBCs may still be undecided on which way to go in the Assembly elections. They may even get off the JD(U) bandwagon due to Nitish’s alliance with Lalu and Congress, against whom he stood for a better part of his political career.

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B. Dalits

Dalits constitute 16 per cent (including 10 per cent Mahadalits carved out by Nitish) of the population in the poll-bound state. Nitish enjoyed the support of Dalits, particularly of the Mahadalits as they owed to him the special privileges they got from the state government. However, he lost their sympathy by replacing Jitan Ram Manjhi - a Mahadalit - as chief minister in February, just nine months after anointing him to the post. The BJP may hope to get the support of a large section of the Dalits also because of the alliance with Union consumer affairs minister Ramvilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Manjhi, who has formed his own party Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and is a part of NDA in Bihar. However, a power tussle has started between Paswan and Manjhi, both trading insults. Episodes like this may only harm NDA unity and may benefit GA.

C. Upper Castes

Constituting 15 per cent of the population in the state (Bhumihars - 6 per cent, Brahmins - 5 per cent, Rajputs - 3 per cent and Kayasthas - 1 per cent), the upper caste voters are believed to be supporters of the NDA. But Congress too has traditional support voters in this section. Though RJD supremo Lalu is believed to be solidly backed by Yadavs and Muslims, and Nitish by Keoris and Kurmis, the two also have a sizeable number of committed voters among the upper castes. In the previous 15th Lok Sabha, three of the four Lok Sabha MPs (Jagadanand Singh, Prabhunath Singh and Raghuvansh Prasad Singh) belonged to the upper castes.

Similarly, Nitish has considerable following among the upper caste voters like Bhumihars and Brahmins, besides intellectuals and development-oriented people. However, the situation seems to have altered after Nitish’s alliance with Lalu and Congress. His support among the upper castes had eroded in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections because of his parting ways with the BJP in June 2013, days after Narendra Modi was anointed as chairperson of BJP’s election campaign committee. However, the voting pattern between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections can differ, as it happened in 2015 Delhi Assembly elections. The BJP had bagged all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi but won just three of the 70 Assembly seats. Nitish may not pull off an Arvind Kejriwal-like victory, but return of some deserted voters cannot be totally ruled out. Hence, besides NDA, even GA can bank on garnering the support of a slice of upper caste votes.

2. Governance

If Modi is pitching hard to maintain his image as a development leader and had even led the BJP to victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls on his good governance plank, Nitish is not too far behind. In his stint as chief minister between 2005 and 2010, he undertook major developmental initiatives by building bridges, roads and other infrastructure facilities. He launched several innovative schemes for women’s empowerment and other sections of the society that lag behind. He was also successful to a large extent in bringing down the crime graph. Modi’s Gujarat model of development got a stiff challenge from Nitish’s Bihar model.

However, it was only in the current term and particularly after the divorce from the BJP that his grip over both developmental initiatives and law and order loosened. His coming together with Lalu – often known to rule over Bihar’s “jungle raj” and “goondaraj” – and Congress, which performed its worst ever amidst a dozen corruption cases, has considerably dented his image. Still, he pitches himself as a “sushaasan babu”, matching Modi on the developmental front. When Modi announced Rs 1.65-lakh crore package for the state, the Bihar chief minister countered him by offering Rs 2.70-lakh crore package. While the Centre approved 33 per cent reservation for women in police forces of all union territories, including Delhi Police, he unveiled a Women Empowerment Policy reserving 35 per cent posts of police constables and sub-inspectors for women.

3. Muslims

The largest minority community is 16.9 per cent of the total population in the state. Their votes had got split in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections among the JD(U), RJD, Congress and NCP. In pockets, they had also voted for the BJP and Paswan’s LJP. The dilemma among the Muslims, who are known to vote strategically and en bloc to an anti-BJP party or alliance, will be less this time around as the three traditional parties that they have supported have come together. In the event, LJP, NCP and even the BJP may be the losers. Muslims play a decisive role in roughly 50 of the 243 Assembly seats in Bihar, particularly in the eastern part called the Seemanchal region where the BJP lost all the eight Lok Sabha seats in 2014 - this despite the Modi wave and the NDA winning 31 of the 40 seats.

If the Muslim votes get consolidated behind GA, it has the potential to brighten the prospects of the “secular alliance”. However, Owaisi may put paid to their chances if he decides to field candidates on 25 seats in Seemanchal, all of which are Muslim-dominated. Muslim consolidation behind AIMIM will also polarise the Hindu votes. Both these developments will harm GA in a large way.

AIMIM contested 24 seats in October 2014 Maharashtra Assembly elections. While it and won two seats, it finished second on three seats and third on eight. A few months later, it bagged 26 seats in the Aurangabad civic polls and emerged as the opposition party in the corporation. It benefitted the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance which returned to power in the corporation.

A similar scenario cannot be ruled out in Bihar in case Owaisi goes ahead with what he announced during his speech delivered in Kishanganj on August 16. While this is music to the ears of the BJP, the development has sent shockwaves in the GA camp. AIMIM will not only win some seats but will also eat into the GA’s Muslim vote bank, thus, benefitting the NDA. No wonder, Owaisi is being accused of playing into the hands of the NDA and being propped up by it. Which way the results are decided will finally depend on the manner in which the Muslim votes are consolidated in the poll-bound state.

Last updated: September 17, 2015 | 18:08
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