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Why Bihar elections is a do or die for Amit Shah

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Devanik Saha
Devanik SahaJul 15, 2015 | 17:36

Why Bihar elections is a do or die for Amit Shah

With BJP winning 13 out of 24 seats in the recent legislative council polls in Bihar, the race to the Assembly polls is heating up. Long time foes Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have joined hands to thwart a resurgent BJP, which is looking to resurrect itself after a debacle in Delhi. BJP is leaving no stone unturned to reach out to voters. It has rolled out 160 GPS enabled chariots which will carry the message of change to the voters. Further, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will launch the campaign "Booth Jeetenge toh Chunaav Jeetenge" on July 25, which is focused towards campaigning at the block and panchayat level.

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Being a must-win election, the onus is on BJP president Amit Shah, who is under immense pressure to lead the party to victory in Bihar. Here are five reasons why:

1. Master strategist's real test: After BJP's resounding win in Lok Sabha, and subsequent state elections, Amit Shah was hailed as a master strategist. However, BJP had a massive advantage in those elections due to the massive anti-incumbency against the Congress and the Modi wave. But it was reduced to dust in the Delhi polls, which proved that winning elections against a formidable opposition wasn't easy. In Bihar, the JD(U)+ RJD+ Congress combine is a tough coalition to beat and therefore, Amit Shah's skills as a master strategist and election manager will be severely tested.

2. Shoring up numbers in Rajya Sabha: Given the shameful defeat in Delhi, Bihar is extremely important for securing seats in the Rajya Sabha (RS), where the BJP has been struggling immensely to gather support, and several of their key legislations like GST Bill, Land Acquisition Bill, etc haven't been cleared by the RS. The upcoming monsoon season is not likely to be much productive, as the opposition parties plan to corner the BJP over recent controversies involving BJP leaders and politicians. Therefore, keeping the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in mind, Bihar elections might be the last chance to gain strength in RS, and push for important legislations which are imperative to BJP's development agenda. The all-important Uttar Pradesh assembly polls are still two years away in 2017, but it will be too late by then to push for reforms and achieve desired economic outcomes before 2019.

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3. Frustration against BJP government's performance: According to a report by Scroll.in, in the past few months, many RSS workers have shot off letters to Nagpur complaining against the BJP government's performance and Modi's failure to implement the key campaign promises. One letter from Bihar even said that Modi's appeal might not be the same in Bihar as last year's Lok Sabha elections. Bharat Singh, an MP from Ballia, Uttar Pradesh even went to the extent of criticising the government in front of Modi saying that there is no development on the ground. If BJP loses in Bihar, then Modi might lose the leverage to be able to push for Shah's continuance as the president.

4. Domination of the Hindi belt: If BJP does manage to win Bihar, it will inch further closer to the complete domination of the Hindi belt (its core ideological vote bank), barring Uttar Pradesh assembly. Winning Bihar will immensely help BJP in UP assembly polls, as it can argue that giving it power in Lok Sabha constituencies as well as state assemblies will augment the state's development as in the case of Gujarat, MP, Haryana and Rajasthan.

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5. Shah's autocracy: With Modi behind Shah's back and instrumental in catapulting him to the position of BJP's president; Shah has worked in an autocratic manner. BJP workers and few MPs aren't happy with Shah's autocratic style of functioning and have accused him of being unreachable to them. Given the coldness and dissent against Shah within the party, a loss in Bihar might completely snatch his power to negotiate for his presidentship's renewal, which is due in January 2016.

Though the legislative council poll result was a morale booster, by no means, Shah can afford to take the situation lightly. The council polls aren't really an indicator of the electoral sentiments and mainly driven by money power, rather than voters. With just five months left in his current tenure, Shah faces a daunting task, as he looks to save his presidentship as well as Modi's invincible image.

Last updated: July 15, 2015 | 17:43
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