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Why NDA swept Bihar vidhan parishad polls

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Ashok Upadhyay
Ashok UpadhyayJul 12, 2015 | 15:58

Why NDA swept Bihar vidhan parishad polls

Soon after the results of the Bihar Legislative Council election came out, a visibly elated former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi said, "Vidhan parishad ki jeet hamari hai, ab vidhan sabha ki baari hai (legislative council poll victory is ours, now state assembly victory is not far off)". This victory has definitely brought a smile to the faces of Bihar BJP leaders, but was it really the semi-final before the grand assembly elections scheduled for September-October? Should this be considered as a curtain raiser or the trailer?

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Let's try to understand its importance. Assessing the win and losses:

The results of the council poll to 24 seats gave the BJP-led NDA 13 seats, lending a clear boost to the saffron camp ahead of the Bihar assembly polls even as the secular coalition of the RJD, JD( U) and the Congress finished with just 10 seats, down from the 16 they had. 

PartySeatsTallyGain/Loss
JDU135-8
BJP512+7
RJD34+1
LJP31-2
Congress01+1

Electoral college

The electoral college of the legislative council elections comprises elected and ex-officio members of municipal corporations, municipal councils, town panchayats, cantonment boards, district boards, panchayat samitis and gram panchayats. The ex-officio members are local MLAs, MLCs and MPs.The polls were along party lines but the majority of 1.38 lakh voters were not elected on party tickets. This may be seen as a fair sampling of the mood ahead of the assembly polls.

Who said what

# Nitish Kumar, chief minister: "This was not an election where common man voted, at the same time it was also not a prestige issue. Even now I am confident that this election will not have any impact on the assembly election results."

# Sushil Kumar Modi, former deputy chief minister: "The council poll results are a reflection of the general mood as at least one or two voters from each of about 42,000 villages participate in the process giving it a wide representative character."

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#Jitan Ram Manjhi, former chief minister: "The victory of NDA amply indicates, that the people of the state and elected local body representatives were not happy with the policies of the present government".  "I term the council polls as semifinal. Now it is clear that the NDA will form the government with a two-thirds majority."

# Ashok Chaudhary, PCC President: "This poll is different from general elections, which has common people as voters. The BJP should not live in a fool's paradise that the outcome of general assembly elections can be managed the same way with the help of its money power," 

# Ananth Kumar, Union minister for chemicals and fertilisers: "The election results which have come out today have very clearly shown which way the wind is blowing; it is definitely the BJP and NDA. In the outgoing legislative council, we were only five, now the tally will be 30. And this entire election is from the local bodies that means the voters are from all the 42,000 villages. Therefore, this has very clearly shown that the trend in Bihar is clearly towards BJP and NDA and the countdown of Lalu, Nitish has begun." 

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# Amit Shah, President, BJP: "The countdown to BJP's victory in Bihar has started today. The BJP-led NDA has won 13 out of 24 seats while it earlier held only five seats. There was a lot of hype around Janata Parivar in Bihar but people have proved that it is a damp squib." 

# Nand Kishore Yadav, leader of Opposition: "People call it a semi-final but I feel the results are just trailer of a movie. The voting pattern in places like Patna and Chhapra clearly reflects that the grand alliance is a mismatch. The supporters of RJD will not vote for JD(U). It will not be an exaggeration if one says that the Grand Alliance has failed to even take off."

# Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, RJD's vice president and former Union minister: "The result is an eye opener for both parties. They (Lalu and Nitish) should understand that a mere alliance between the two parties does not work; the alliance needs proper coordination and preparation of common minimum programmes to be effective."

Big takeaways

1.    The BJP has won from Lalu Prasad's native Gopalganj district where Sachidanand Rai defeated JDU candidate and deputy chairman of the legislative council Salim Parvez by a handsome margin of over 900 votes.

2.    BJP made a clean sweep in places like Saran, Siwan and Gopalganj - considered a stronghold of the RJD because of the significant presence of Yadavs. The RJD rebel and incarcerated criminal Ritlal Yadav won from Patna. The BJP candidate was a distant second.

3.    The results indicate that the Nitish-Lalu combine might not be as formidable on the ground as it is on paper while the BJP looks to be holding fast.

4.    From Mithilanchal to Seemanchal - regions with huge presence of Muslim voters - the secular JDU-RJD alliance has lost everywhere. In central and certain pockets of north Bihar, however, its candidates proved their acceptability among the voters.

Will the grand alliance fizzle out?

The Nitish-Lalu combine has failed to save even its existing seats in the wake of the NDA's onslaught. Its partners held 16 of the seats that went to polls and the result has not only surprised politicians but also political analysts who have closely watched the elections in Bihar for at least two decades. The prevailing opinion is that it is high time that the Bihar CM revisited his strategy and thought over his decision to contest the forthcoming elections in alliance with the RJD and Congress. Some feel that if he goes to polls on his own, his party may be decimated. Either way, it is going to be a tight rope walk for Nitish Kumar.

Last updated: July 13, 2015 | 10:13
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