Why BJP looks as if it's losing in Bihar

The BJP had launched its election in Bihar with much pomp and exuberance when Prime Minister Narendra Modi took on both – state’s chief minister Nitish Kumar and RJD president Lalu Prasad – at the first Parivartan Rally in Muzaffarpur on July 25. He lashed out at Nitish with his DNA barb, saying the latter dumps even the closest of his political friends. On Lalu, he invoked an old charge and said RJD stood for "Rozana Jungle-raj ka Darr". Modi held four rallies as part of the Parivartan Rally, ending it on September 1 in Bhagalpur.

But for the minor glitches like the DNA or BIMARU remarks, which became controversial and Nitish sought to draw mileage from them, the PM had generated enough heat in the already surcharged political atmosphere of the state. The Grand Alliance appeared to be on a defensive as a result of Modi’s onslaught. However, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s remark on September 20 advocating a review of the reservation policy tipped the balance in favour of the Grand Alliance.

Subsequently, the politics of Bihar took another turn when Lalu scored a self goal thereafter by his “Hindus also eat beef” remark. The Yadav strongman worsened it when, in an effort to minimise the damage, he confessed that he was possessed by a devil which forced him to make the “beef” comment. It seemed the damage done by Bhagwat’s comment had been squared by Lalu’s faux pas. However, soon after the first two phases of the polls held on October 12 and October 16, the BJP seems to have been put on the defensive and these are the reasons why:

1. Sakshi Maharaj

Controversial BJP MP Sakshi Maharaj on October 19 gave a hint of the party’s weakened position when he said he had been hearing reports “lately” that it might lose the Bihar Assembly polls. However, he sought to blame the people and defend both – the PM and party president Amit Shah - by saying if that happens, it would be the loss of the state and not that of either of the two top leaders. Bihar must realise that it has cancer and needs immediate surgery if it has any hope for development, the Unnao MP added.

However, Maharaj has thrown enough hints that the internal assessment of the party after the first two phases of polls (the second phase was held on October 16) did not have encouraging signs for the BJP.

2. Modi’s cancelled rallies

The Opposition petitioned the Election Commission (EC) objecting to Modi’s rallies on the day of the first phase of elections saying it would influence the voters, and hence it was a violation of the model code of conduct. Despite the EC’s nod to the PM to hold rallies on election dates, his rallies at Buxar, Hajipur and Paliganj on October 16 in the second phase of polls were cancelled without any convincing reason.

The cancellation of Modi’s scheduled rallies at the eleventh hour has triggered whispers of the BJP trying to scale down his participation in the face of discouraging reports. A message has certainly gone out that the BJP has curtailed Modi’s engagement deflect the blame of NDA's defeat of the NDA away from Modi.

3. Changed posters

Posters are also indicators of the subtle messages a party or faction sends out by the slogans and faces on them. Initially, it was mostly Modi or Modi and Shah all the way on the posters. However, after the first phase and just before the second phase of elections, posters of state leaders have also been put up in a large way.

There can two reasons behind it – one, the obvious one, that Modi is deliberately being relegated to the background to shield him from the blame for defeat by creating a buffer of the leaders from the state. And, two, that the BJP finds itself pushed to the wall after Nitish and Lalu raised the “Baahri versus Bihari” (outsiders versus local) war. In either of the two cases, it presents the BJP in a defensive posture.

4. Pulling up leaders

Modi might have erred in his first two or three rallies as part of Parivartan Yatra by passing DNA and BIMARU remarks. However, he tweaked his strategy and returned to just development talk. He sought to bolster his "pro-development" image - something which he has been trying to build painstakingly after the 2002 Gujarat riots – by the end of the Bhagalpur rally.

However, his efforts were reduced to a naught with Bhagwat’s remarks on reservation, comments on beef ban and the ghastly Dardri lynching incident. Modi contributed to it by keeping mum on all these issues. Even after he condemned the Dadri incident, the BJP leaders, including Haryana chief minister ML Khattar, kept making controversial statements, derailing Modi’s attempts to contest the Bihar polls on only development plank.

On Sunday, Shah summoned motor-mouths like Khattar, Union minister Sanjeev Balyan, Maharaj and Uttar Pradesh MLA Sangeet Som to the party headquarters and reprimanded them up for “making unnecessary inflammatory remarks”. It is learnt that though Union culture minister Mahesh Sharma was not present, Shah’s message was also for him.

The issue is - had both Modi and Shah taken these corrective measures well in advance, the damage could have been minimised. In any case, the corrective measures prove the BJP’s nervousness.

5. RSS’ bid to defend its chief

Though BJP leaders and PM Modi himself sought to ameliorate fears among the OBCs, EBC, SCs and STs that the existing reservation system would continue, RSS on October 19 reiterated its support to the policy enshrined in the Constitution. Trying to defend Bhagwat, it issued a statement and said his remarks were distorted by the critics to create confusion about the organisation’s view on the reservation policy. It condemned such efforts to distort Bhagwat’s views to mislead the people and create confusion. The fact that it took almost a month for the RSS to issue such a statement indicates the BJP’s ideological parent’s compulsion in doing so.

Shah on October 19 dismissed reports that the NDA was struggling after the two phases of polling. He claimed that the alliance will win 32-34 seats in the first phase of polling and 22-24 in second phase out of the total 81 seats that have gone to polls so far.

The BJP chief is trying to put up a brave face. But it is obvious that the party is feeling jittery after the first two phases of polls and has tweaked its strategy. And the damage has already been done. Are these measures sufficient to make amends for the blunders which have been committed in the past two-three months? Which way the remaining three phases go will have the answer to it.