Bihar elections will give birth to the big daddy of Pataliputra
BJP-led NDA and the three-party "so-called secular" grand alliance (GA) are locked in a stiff battle ahead of the October-November Assembly elections in Bihar. However, clashes of personalities are taking place in both the alliances for establishing supremacy over their respective support bases. While Union consumer affairs minister and LJP president Ramvilas Paswan and HAM (Hindustani Awam Morcha) president Jitan Ram Manjhi are engaged in a bitter fight to claim dominance over Dalits, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad are vying for supremacy within their alliance through their respective brand of politics.
Paswan versus Manjhi
Dalits constitute 16 per cent of the population in Bihar. Politically, both Paswan and Manjhi have their own strengths. Both are competing to claim the undisputed leadership of the Dalits. Paswan is the unchallenged leader of Dusadhs, who comprise 4 per cent of the population. Dusadhs are amongst the most powerful in the Dalit community. Paswan is much senior to Manjhi, having won the Assembly election in 1969 and Lok Sabha election in 1977 for the first time. It is his ninth term in the Lower House. He was a Rajya Sabha member before getting elected to Lok Sabha from Hajipur in 2014. The Union minister's name finds mention in the Guinness Book of World Records for winning the Lok Sabha election from Hajipur in 1977 by the highest margin ever. He became a Union cabinet minister post for the first time in 1989, holding labour and welfare portfolios. He was designated as leader of the House in the 11th Lok Sabha (1996-98) as both the prime ministers - HD Devegowda and IK Gujral - were Rajya Sabha members. He has held Union cabinet portfolios, including railways and communications.
Though Manjhi is older than Paswan (he was born on October 6, 1944, while Paswan was born on July 5, 1946), he entered politics much later in 1980 when he was first elected to the Assembly. He belongs to the Musahar sub-caste, known traditionally to be rat-eaters. Musahars were included in the Mahadalit category by Nitish by identifying 18 of the 22 Dalit sub castes. Though they are one of the weakest sub-castes, Mahadalits constitute 31 per cent of the Dalits. Manjhi too has held several portfolios in different governments - Congress, RJD and JD(U) - before being anointed as chief minister by Nitish for nine months. He has a major following among the Mahadalits who are 10 per cent of Bihar's population.
LJP's performance at the national level is better than that at the state level. It has six Lok Sabha MPs, including Paswan's actor-turned-politician son Chirag Paswan. LJP had won only three Assembly seats in the 2010 Assembly elections, but it does not have any at present as all of them quit the party one by one. On the other hand, HAM, which is making its electoral debut, has 13 MLAs.
Armed with their respective strengths, both Paswan and Manjhi indulged in a bitter spat recently just before BJP president Amit Shah declared the seat-sharing arrangement among the NDA allies. While Manjhi demanded number of seats at par with the LJP, the Union minister countered that by calling himself a "national leader" and branding Manjhi a "state leader". He also sought to belittle Manjhi by claiming that the latter was "on trial in NDA". This infuriated Manjhi and he accused Paswan of indulging in nepotism and promoting his son and brothers in the party at the cost of more deserving leaders.
Finally, when the seat distribution formula was announced, while LJP got 40 to contest, while HAM received just its half. Now, it is a tall order for LJP to prove its worth. The strike rate - percentage of seats won and votes polled - will decide who is the undisputed Dalit leader of Bihar.
Lalu versus Nitish
Having dabbled together in politics during Jayaprakash Narayan's Sampoorna Kranti in mid-'70s, both Lalu and Nitish have shared a love-hate relationship. Lalu rose to prominence after becoming the chief minister in 1990. He nurtured Muslims and Yadavs (M-Y) as his vote bank leading his RJD to win two successive elections in 1995 and 2000. Development and governance took a back seat during RJD-s 15-year rule. Caste-based politics (read Yadav politics) in the name of "social justice", "jungle raj" and nepotism marked Lalu and his wife Rabri Devi's rules.
Nitish was considered quite close to Lalu till a couple of years after the latter became chief minister of Bihar. However, he left Lalu's company in 1994 due to major disagreements on the issue of governance (read misgovernance). Subsequently, the relations between the two hit a nadir and both would accuse each other in public. With the BJP's support, Nitish became the chief minister in 2005. Though he again came closer to Lalu after breaking away from NDA in 2013, the two have been squabbling for dominance in their alliance - first in the now defunct six-party Janata Parivar and now in the "maha gathbandhan" (grand alliance).
It is a marriage of convenience for both Lalu and Nitish, as both of them are contesting from weak positions and it is a do or die battle for both of them. The desperation in both these leaders stems from this sense of insecurity. RJD has never performed satisfactorily in elections since it lost power to JD(U)-BJP combine in 2005. It won just 22 Assembly seats in the 2010 elections in the 243-member House and four Lok Sabha seats each in the 2009 and 2014 general elections. While he himself has been debarred from contesting, after having been convicted in the fodder case, there was no consolation from his family members either as both wife Rabri and daughter Misa Bharti also lost the last Lok Sabha elections. Therefore, constantly on the downward swing, it is Lalu's last ditch attempt to survive in Bihar politics.
As far as Nitish is concerned, his image took a major beating after JD(U) broke away from NDA in June 2013 and lost political direction. His reputation was further dented when he replaced Manjhi as chief minister nine months after installing him on the post. Besides these, Nitish is facing anti-incumbency of 10-year rule.
No wonder, Nitish and Lalu squabbled over the chief ministerial candidate for the Bihar Assembly elections as the latter was adamant on someone from his family or his close aide leading the alliance. It was only after intervention of Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav and Congress president Sonia Gandhi that Lalu reluctantly accepted Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate. The two have exchanged barbs after that with Lalu commenting that he had consumed poison and allied with Nitish, while the latter returned fire by remarking that people with good nature are like a sandalwood tree, which does not lose its fragrance even if snakes surround it.
Lalu has also sought to steal the limelight from Nitish ever since they joined hands. It was witnessed during the August 30 Swabhiman Rally in Patna when Lalu spoke last and sought to set the agenda by invoking to herald Mandal Part 2. This goes against the grain of Nitish who swears by development and good governance. Majority of the crowd in the rally were Lalu supporters. Though the RJD and JD(U) have shared 100 seats each, Nitish is seen to be the clear loser. In the 2010 Assembly elections, JD(U) contested 141 seats and won 115 at strike rate of 81.56 per cent, while the RJD contested 168 and won just 22, at a strike rate of 13.09 per cent.
Though both of them belong to the OBC category, their caste bases are different. While Lalu commands support of 14 per cent Yadavs, Nitish does that of 8 per cent Koeris and 4 per cent Kurmis (to which he belongs). While Lalu believes in regressive caste politics and is known for misruling over Bihar, Nitish's politics is a mix of development, good governance and social engineering. The party which bags more seats will establish its dominance over the alliance. As the two leaders fight a battle for survival, it remains to be seen whose brand of politics wins - Lalu's caste or Nitish's good governance.