Why 2016 Assembly polls are a challenge for both BJP and Congress
The CSIS Wadhwani Chair in US-India Policy Studies brings to you a video series featuring some of the world’s top experts on India, tackling critical questions framed to understand the significance of the elections in four states — Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal and the Union Territory of Puducherry — that started at the beginning of April.
These four states and Puducherry have a combined population of 229 million; a total greater than all but four countries - China, India, US, Indonesia. This point should be sufficiently significant to warrant international attention.
There is a lot at stake in these Assembly elections. India’s states collectively exercise a great deal of authority over the country's business environment and its human development. Under India’s Constitution, states have near-total control over electricity grids, water distribution, law and order, agriculture markets, sanitation, and most of all, regulation of businesses. Innovative states are taking the lead in using this power to improve their residents’ lives and are competing to attract investment by reforming land acquisition and labour laws.
Guessing the outcomes of Assembly elections is always a difficult task. Advance polls have not proven reliable, and even exit polls are rarely attuned with actual outcomes. But irrespective of the outcomes, these Assembly elections will help our understanding of India’s politics in the years to come in terms of the makeup of the Rajya Sabha, the upper House of the Parliament, shaping our views about incumbent governments’ re-electability, and gauging the political fortunes of both the BJP and the Congress.
Role of states in the Indian economy: What impact do state elections have on the overall economic growth of India?
When the Narendra Modi government came to power in 2014, it rejuvenated the concepts of competitive and cooperative federalism. While the Central government cannot force state-level reforms, institutions like the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog and the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) have undertaken novel projects to gauge the relative attractiveness of state business environments, and encourage reforms. States that improve their policies on land, water, sanitation, management of power grids, and the business environment, will directly affect the national economy.
The Modi government is also undertaking programmes that will alter the balance of power between the Central government and the states. In some instances such as the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojna (UDAY) power sector bailout and the Goods and Services Tax (GST), more authority will be vested with the Central government. On the other hand, programmes like devolving greater federal funds directly to the states will strengthen the states’ hands to shape their own economy.
Is there a change in BJP’s campaign strategy after losing the Bihar Assembly election in 2015?
In the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP was confident of a resounding victory. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself held over 30 rallies in ten days to campaign for the BJP. The party and the prime minister deviated from their development pitch to include social issues and personal insults toward the Opposition. These strategies helped them win only 53 of the 243 seats, a drop of 91 seats since the last Assembly elections in Bihar.
However, the incumbent party in power, Janata Dal (United), created a coalition with the RJD and Congress to win the Bihar elections with 178 seats. None of the four states and the Union Territory of Puducherry, where elections have just ended, has ever been held by the BJP. However, the BJP did win half the Lok Sabha seats from Assam in 2014. It becomes imperative to evaluate the changes or the lack thereof in BJP’s election campaign strategy.
Best case scenario for BJP and Congress: What will constitute success for the BJP and the Congress in the ongoing state elections?
These Assembly elections pose a unique challenge for both the BJP and Congress. The BJP has not historically been viewed as a contender in elections in these states. Prime Minister Modi has been intimately involved in the election campaign for the BJP. He has been vocal in calling out the parties in power — calling the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal the “Terror, Maut (death), and Corruption” party or comparing United Democratic Front (UDF)-led Kerala to Somalia, among other examples.
The Congress has its own set of challenges. These elections will determine whether the Congress is able to maintain control on its traditional voter base.
(This piece first appeared here.)