Congress' Captain Amarinder Singh looks most sustainable for Punjab
Undoubtedly, the Congress under Captain Amarinder Singh is the most sustainable political option for Punjab, given the gigantic anti-incumbency storm battering the governing Akalis and a reckless record of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi.
An opinion poll by Axis-My-India for the India Today Group forecast 49 to 55 seats for the Congress and 42 to 46 for Arvind Kejriwal's AAP.
Chief minister Parkash Singh Badal's Shiromani Akali Dal and ally BJP were projected to secure 17 to 21 boroughs in the 117-seat state Assembly.
A large number of voters in Punjab nurse more than anti-incumbency sentiments towards the Badal family. They perhaps have developed revulsion at the dynasty for its alleged corruption, patronage of drug mafias and absolute control over Sikh religious institutions.
That said, if history is any indicator, the Akalis have never gone politically bankrupt.
In 2002, in the middle of the historic split between Badal and Akali stalwart Gurcharan Singh Tohra, the SAD was still able to manage around 40 seats on its own in the face of a similar wave of public disdain.
Thursday's (October 13) opinion poll factored in some 19 indices to predict the virtual rout of the Akalis in elections due early next year.
Pollsters didn't really touch religion - Badals' core domain - in their survey.
In Punjab, at least 50 constituencies in the interiors of the state are regarded as Panthak - which means they traditionally vote for the Akalis whom they see as custodians of the Akal Takht and Sikh heritage.
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| The Badals have come under a lot of flak for their handling of Sikh religious issues. (Photo: PTI) |
They aren't hardliners. And for the record, hardliners in Punjab deliver a low turnout at voting booths.
For Panthaks, faith is what matters most.
The Badals have come under a lot of flak for their handling of Sikh religious issues. Sikh protests erupted in Punjab last year over several incidents of desecration of Guru Granth Sahib.
The credibility of the Jathedar of the Akal Takht, the highest seat of Sikh temporal authority, has also been dented heavily over the past couple of years.
So, the question arises which way the Panthak vote then is going to swing. Will it be Amarinder Singh's Congress or Kejriwal's AAP or will it split among all the three?
For this bloc of Panthak voters, Operation Blue Star is an unpardonable offence, graver than the massacre of Sikhs in Delhi and elsewhere in 1984.
For this bloc of Panthak voters, Sikh identity is also uncompromisable.
That explains why the Akalis, who manage the SGPC, have never gone politically insolvent ever despite headwinds.
Kejriwal, a non-Punjabi and a non-Sikh, has remained non-committal about portraying a Sikh from the soil as his party's chief ministerial candidate.
Panthaks are not going to abandon the SAD en masse. But a sizeable chunk of them unyieldingly angry at the Badals might have, had the AAP put up a face they could identify with. But the Aam Aadmi Party hasn't so far. For that matter, even former cricketer Navjot Singh Sidhu doesn't fit into Panthak psyche.
That leaves me suspect of the Akalis' predicted washout in the new Punjab Assembly.
As far as AAP is concerned, it's performance in the Sikh-majority state will determine the course of national politics over and above elections in Uttar Pradesh or Goa.
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