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If Congress splits because of Rahul Gandhi: This is how it'll happen

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Kumar Shakti Shekhar
Kumar Shakti ShekharSep 30, 2015 | 18:47

If Congress splits because of Rahul Gandhi: This is how it'll happen

The Congress has failed to get its act together in 16 months since its crushing defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The party was expected to embark on some path-breaking journeys of introspection which would have brightened its prospects in the forthcoming Assembly polls in several states and the 2019 general elections. One had also hoped that party vice-president Rahul Gandhi would implement some innovative ideas after he returned from his 56-day sabbatical in April this year.

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Initially, Rahul changed his style of attacking the rival BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He shed his perennially aggressive image, brought sarcasm and humour into his speeches. But the best was his catchy one-liners, such as “suit-boot ki sarkar” and “Hindustan ke mann ki baat”, to criticise Modi. However, five months down the line, even his attacks have become blunt and the one-liners have become hackneyed.

Instead of having the desired effect, attempts at internal reforms have aggravated the internal bickering in several states. At a time when Congress is eclipsed by its worst phase ever since Sonia Gandhi took over as the party president in 1998, when Bihar Assembly elections are not even a fortnight away and when rebellions and dissensions are staring in the face of the party, Rahul chose to attend a seminar in Aspen, USA, lending credence to the criticism that he is a reluctant leader. Amidst all this, if the Congress splits, this is why it will happen.

1. Old guard versus the young turks

Mumbai Regional Congress Committee president and former MP Sanjay Nirupam exposed one of the bitterest forms of power struggle raging within the party and which, if it snowballs into a full-blown war, threatens even the existence of the party. Nirupam caused ripples by stating that established leadership in several states was creating major roadblocks for the new state presidents by not cooperating and even opposing them. He alleged that this phenomenon was further weakening the party which was facing its worst period.

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Besides Mumbai, states like Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi are facing the worst kind of factionalism. In states like Punjab and Haryana, the squabbling is out in the open. In all these states, the new PCC presidents are considered to be Rahul’s appointees. By opposing them, the old guard is seen as challenging the party vice-president’s selection. The same section is also perceived to be behind blocking Rahul’s ascension to the party president’s post, replacing his mother.

Keeping in view the mood of this old guard, the party has decided to postpone the internal elections by a year. The party believes this will allow the top leaders to settle the leadership issue. But the development surely shows Rahul in poor light. Either he is considered not-yet-fit to take up the top job or as a reluctant politician – both the arguments go against the Nehru-Gandhi scion. However, things may actually worsen if the party fails to perform in the forthcoming Assembly elections.

2. Bihar

Having ruled this state for about 40 years since independence, the grand old party is in a pathetic condition here. It has been relegated to the last (third) position in the grand alliance with Lalu Prasad’s RJD and chief minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U). While RJD and JD(U) are contesting 101 seats each, Congress is fighting on just 41 seats. By an estimate, it has got much more than what it deserved because the party has cut a sorry figure in all the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in the past quarter century. It won just four seats in the 2010 Assembly elections and two seats each in the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

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The party does not even have any prominent leader in the state. It has been constantly on a downward slide, particularly after its defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in the backdrop of several multi-crore corruption cases and controversies. It hardly has any presence in Bihar now.

The same holds true for the most crucial state numerically – Uttar Pradesh. The party, here too, has been pushed to the last among the competing parties like the ruling Samajwadi Party, Mayawati’s BSP and the BJP. There are no signs whatsoever either of the party getting rejuvenated in this crucial state which sends the highest number of 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. The Congress is already in the dumps in other big states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. A dismal future and, worse, a lackadaisical approach by the leadership to revive the party’s prospects, will threaten to trigger rebellions at the national and the state levels.

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3. Punjab

The state unit of the party is on the verge of split with Lok Sabha member from Amritsar Amarinder Singh, raising a banner of revolt against the central leadership over passing of the baton from the incumbent chief Partap Singh Bajwa to him. Singh is the tallest leader in the state having defeated Union finance minister Arun Jaitley despite the Modi wave in the 2014 general elections. He is the deputy leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha and he is also a former chief minister of Punjab.

Congress leaders have openly aired the view that only Singh can deliver in the 2017 Assembly elections. However, Congress is toying with the idea of replacing Bajwa with former Union minister Ambika Soni as a compromise party president, which again is unacceptable to Singh. He has even attacked Rahul, who is considered to have picked Bajwa. Amidst the ongoing drama, Singh has reiterated that if the party’s central leadership does not act, he will “look for options”. It will not be a surprise if Singh splits the state unit to launch his own outfit sooner than later.

4. Haryana

As in Punjab, the infighting here is split wide open with former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda protesting against the state unit president Ashok Tanwar. In both the rallies at Ramlila Maidan in the national capital – April 19 and September 20 – addressed by Sonia, Rahul and former prime minister Manmohan Singh, Hooda and his supporters sought to embarrass Tanwar. Outnumbering Tanwar’s supporters, the former CM’s supporters sported pink turbans to display their strength. They even hooted Tanwar and chanted pro-Hooda slogans.

Ever since the poor show of the Congress in the 2014 general elections and its defeat in the Assembly elections held later the same year, the supporters of Tanwar and Congress Legislature Party leader Kiran Choudhry have been given importance. Hooda has registered a protest with the central leadership. The raging war may worsen in the days to come.

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5. Assam

The Congress has already suffered its worst jolt in years which threatens to mar its chances in the 2016 Assembly elections. In August, Himanta Biswa Sarma, the aide-turned-foe of chief minister Tarun Gogoi, switched over to the BJP. He is considered to be the brain behind all the super shows of the Congress in the Assembly, Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha elections in the last decade. He is not only known as a master strategist but also is charismatic and the highest followed leader on social media in the Northeast. His crossing over to the BJP comes as the biggest blow to the Congress which is likely to lose one prominent state.

The Congress is in power in eight states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka and it is ruling as an alliance partner Kerala. Several of these states are going to polls till the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. There is a strong possibility that Congress will lose some of these. In such a situation, far from improving its tally, the party may fair even worse in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. While West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala go to polls in 2016, Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh face elections in 2017. Assembly elections in Gujarat, Karnataka, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram will be held in 2018.

In the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP, particularly Modi, had exhorted the voters to make India “Congress-mukt” (free of Congress), and this is how the grand old party of India is working overtime to prove its rivals correct.

Last updated: October 02, 2015 | 13:16
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