5 reasons losing MCD polls is detrimental to BJP

Ordinarily, the municipal elections escape the media spotlight. More so the bye-elections for selecting councillors whose terms last less than a year. Not with Delhi, where the municipal bye-elections results, declared on May 17, have been keenly watched and analysed threadbare.

AAP emerged as the largest party, winning five of the 13 seats on offer, followed by the Congress which won four seats, with the BJP settling for the third spot with three seats in its tally. This was when BJP held seven of the 13 seats that went to polls. The diminishing vote share of the BJP should not be taken lightly as it portends worrying possibilities for the party.

Travails in Delhi - a tail of missed opportunities

After 15 years of the Sheila Dikshit rule, the BJP was poised to win Delhi in 2013.

But AAP's emergence denied the BJP its due victory. This temporary setback was more than compensated when the BJP swept all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi. Post the thumping majority, the BJP should have been the unrivalled king of Delhi; instead, it has been a constant tail of lost opportunities for the party.

The sorry story that began with delaying the Assembly elections and causing failure to capitalise on the 2014 wave, made worse by the disastrous outing in the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, has now become a full-blown crisis with the BJP plunging to the third place in the municipal bye-polls.

This falling graph of the BJP in the capital is a direct manifestation of its failure to capitalise on opportunities and a marker of its poor local leadership - a characteristic identified with the Congress, not the BJP.

Is BJP losing touch with its staunchest supporters?

Delhi has a prominently urban electorate with an average income that is over twice the national average. This is the constituency in which BJP has been traditionally the strongest and has been the backbone which has allowed BJP to expand its reach among other sections. Modi's emergence was most vocally supported by this class of people.

So if today, the BJP is struggling with such favourable demography, it can't hope much from other electoral outings where the demographies are much more challenging.

Delhi represents national mood

Delhi, being the national capital, has an important bearing on the national mood. It is also much more affected by it. When the Congress was on ascendancy in India, it also was invincible in Delhi; when the party started losing touch with the electorate, it was foretold by the rout it received in Delhi. So if the BJP has testing times in Delhi, it also partly reflects its troublesome national run and will be an irritant for BJP strategists.

Also, Delhi comprises migrants who affect their regional politics and are shaped by their respective regional political moods. So if BJP's romance with Delhi is fraying, trouble in various regions won't be too far away.

BJP may lose MCD polls

It has dominated the MCD so far. Sheila Dikshit, despite commanding a hold over Delhi, could not displace BJP, notwithstanding the party's dismal performance in the municipal body.

Therefore, if, today, a rookie party has reduced BJP to the third place in its very first outing in the municipal polls, despite the BJP contestants enjoying the benefit of gaining votes of those who wanted councillors from the party ruling the municipality (BJP's control of the MCD was not going to be affected by the fate of bye-polls), the party's chances look bleak in the capital.

After today's defeat, BJP's already high odds to retain MCD are a notch higher. Also, the BJP's rout in the bye-poll will instill confidence in its rival that the BJP is not all that invincible in the MCD. If BJP loses its grip over MCD, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal will be further emboldened to take on Modi; also, he will have the added the weight of the MCD machinery to keep needling the Modi government.

The BJP's ability to keep Kejriwal entangled in local troubles in order to prevent him from focusing on his national ambition will diminish considerably as it will lose an important instrument in the MCD (Remember the garbage crisis?).

Forget Congress-mukt Bharat, it's Congress yukt Delhi

The BJP has repeatedly expressed its intent to finish off congress nationally and rid India of Congress. But the MCD results show that at least in Delhi, the Congress is on an upswing. It is the biggest gainer of the bye-polls. The energetic leadership of Maken has ensured the Congress has risen like a phoenix from its ashes.

But a part of the credit for Congress' revival in Delhi also goes to the BJP, which has allowed the Congress to sit in the Opposition, against the AAP in Delhi.

In conclusion, while we must be cautious in reading the municipal polls, the bye-poll results show signs that the BJP can ignore at its own risk.

A beautiful urdu couplet, "Tujhse pehle jo ik shaks takht nashin tha, use bhi apne khuda hone ka utna hi yakin tha (the person who ruled before you was equally convinced of his invincibility)", drives home the message that the BJP must not grow complacent.

The saffron party will do well to smell the coffee and make amends to prevent more such bad tidings.