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Delhi polls: Why BJP is hoping for the Congress to do well

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Rahul Kanwal
Rahul KanwalFeb 09, 2015 | 00:14

Delhi polls: Why BJP is hoping for the Congress to do well

Rarely has so much importance been accorded to the fortunes of the party that is poised to finish last in an election. And never has the BJP so badly wanted the Congress to do well. The vote-share that the Grand Old Party ends up with on February 10 will to a great extent decide the final outcome of the Delhi polls.  

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The closer the Congress ends up to the vote-share it bagged in the last assembly elections, the better it will be for the BJP. The more the Congress loses, the more AAP gains.

The last round of opinion polls has painted a dismal picture for the Congress. The Congress's projected seat share ranges from zero seats according to the ET-TNS poll to seven seats in the India Today-Cicero poll. But far more important than the seats that the Congress gets is the final vote-share that the party ends up with.

The range for Congress' projected vote share extends from 5 per cent in the ET-TNS poll to 18 per cent in the ABP-Nielsen poll.  In the 9 assembly elections that have been held in the Capital since 1951, the Congress's average vote-share has been 42.9 per cent. Minorities, Dalits and those living in jhuggis have traditionally been strong supporters of the Congress party. According to the data collated by Cicero for the India Today Group there is a high co-relation between the vote-share of Congress and that of AAP. Between 70-80 per cent of those who said that they will vote for AAP indicated that they had voted for the Congress in previous elections.  

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In the final India Today-Cicero tracker poll the Congress was projected to bag 13 per cent of the total votes. Aam Aadmi Party has been able to snatch most of Congress' traditional vote-share in the jhuggis with a whopping 53 per cent of the jhuggi voters indicating that they would vote this time for AAP. 47 per cent of the Dalits respondents said they would pick the jhadoo while 49 per cent of the Muslims too said they would vote for AAP.

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All these figures are a substantial jump over the tracker figures from December and January which shows that as the campaign progressed and word spread that the Congress was being edged out of the race, more and more of the traditional Congress voter started switching to AAP.  

According to Cicero estimates, for every 2 per cent votes that the Congress gains over 13 per cent, the Aam Aadmi Party will lose about  1.5 per cent. If the Congress is able to cross the 20 per cent vote share mark then the BJP and AAP will be neck and neck. And if the Congress comes close to matching the 24.5 per cent vote-share it bagged in the last assembly elections then the BJP will get a majority in the Delhi elections.  

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The BJP has a better conversion ratio of votes into seats because its vote share is more evenly distributed across Delhi. Till the Lok Sabha elections, AAP vote-share was more concentrated in its areas of influence in the urban parts of Delhi. This means that if the vote-share gap between the BJP and AAP is neck-and-neck on February 10, BJP is likely to bag more seats than AAP.  

In December 2013 the Congress had garnered almost one-fourth (24.55 per cent) of the total votes cast in Delhi and picked up eight seats. However, five months later during the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress' vote-share crashed by almost 10 per cent coming down to 15 per cent. If the Lok Sabha data was extrapolated over Assembly segments of Delhi, the Congress would have bagged zero seats in May.  

The BJP's internal vote-share estimates show the Congress bagging between 18-20 per cent, which is one of the main reasons the party believes that AAP is not as comfortably placed as the opinion polls would suggest. The party is also hoping that some of the votes lost by the Congress end up in its kitty.  

The Congress is down and out. But in this exciting capital showdown, the Grand Old Party remains critical even in defeat.

 
Congress Vote ShareElection Result
13 per centAAP gets clear majority
20 per centBJP and AAP neck and neck
24.55 per centBJP gets clear majority

2013 Party Position

PartySeats WonVote Share
BJP3133.07 per cent
AAP2829.49 per cent
Congress824.55 per cent
JD (U)10.85 per cent
 SAD10.91 per cent
 Independents1 2.93 per cent
 BSP05.35 per cent
Total70 

2014 Lok Sabha Elections

PartySeats WonVote Share
BJP747.9 per cent
AAP032.9 per cent
Congress015 per cent
Others04.2 per cent

Last updated: February 09, 2015 | 00:14
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