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Delhi verdict was not a referendum on Modi

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Rahul Kanwal
Rahul KanwalFeb 14, 2015 | 14:41

Delhi verdict was not a referendum on Modi

The swords are out for Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the BJP's disastrous showing in Delhi. Critics are describing the verdict as a stinging indictment of the prime minister's nine month stint in office. From his "10 lakh rupee suit" to "love jihad" to "Church vandalism", poll pundits have conveniently attributed the 67-3 score line against the ruling party to many supposed acts of omission and commission. 

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Experts are of course entitled to their opinion. But let us take a hard look at the only empirical data available that sheds light on what the voters of the national capital actually think of the Modi sarkar.  

According to the widely respected CSDS post poll data for the Delhi elections, two-thirds of the respondents said that they were satisfied with Narendra Modi as prime minister. If the mandate in Delhi was indeed a referendum on the performance of the Modi sarkar then a massive 66 per cent of the respondents would not have said that they were approved of NaMo's work as PM. Only 30 per cent of the voters said they were dissatisfied with Modi's efforts in office. Even among the poorest voters, there was high level of support for the prime minister.   

CSDS polled 2,060 respondents spread across 120 locations in 24 assembly constituencies of Delhi. It's not just the Prime Minister who scores on the popularity charts, even the government that he runs got a thumbs up from Delhi's janata. 63 per cent of the overall respondents said that they were satisfied with the performance of  the central government.  

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People clearly seem to be more patient than the pundits who have been quick to describe Modi's government as a failure. So if it wasn't the prime minister's performance then what worked against the BJP? The CSDS data shows that contrary to commonly held perception, voters had a very high opinion of Arvind Kejriwal's 49 day stint in power.  

72 per cent of the overall respondents expressed satisfaction with the aborted AAP government. Amongst poor voters, Kejriwal had an even stronger approval rating with almost 80 per cent of the respondents saying that they liked Kejriwal's government. Even amongst the middle-class and rich voters, 68 per cent of the respondents said that they had a high opinion of Kejriwal's government. Only 24 per cent of the total respondents said they were dissatisfied with the AAP government.  

Kiran Bedi coming into the BJP seems to have made things worse for the party. 63 per cent of the overall respondents expressed disapproval of the decision to bring in Bedi. Even among traditional BJP voters, 60 per cent said that the party had ignored the claim of local leaders by parachuting Bedi into the campaign arena.  So according to hard data what seems to have happened in Delhi is this. Voters looked at the two options available before them. The BJP's campaign was in disarray. Local leaders were busy fighting each instead of combating Kejriwal's challenge.

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The Aam Aadmi Party on the other hand ran a positive, spirited campaign that successfully percolated down to the voters. There was a strong feeling among voters that Kejriwal had a lot of potential and that he hadn't been given a proper chance last to fulfil his promises.  Voters judged the two alternatives and picked the one they thought would help improve their lives.

The BJP's collapse in Delhi has come as a rude wake up call to the Modi government. The prime minister will need to get into overdrive to ensure that voters feel that the promise of "Achhe Din" is being kept. But to suggest that the Delhi disaster was a vote against Modi is empirically incorrect.

Satisfaction levels: Doers both

 Kejriwal's 49 day governmentNarendra Modi as prime ministerCentral government
Satisfied726663
Dissatisfied243032
Don't know/Can't say445

Satisfaction levels by class

  Kejriwal's 49 day governmentCentral government
 Poor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied  
79
16
54
40
 Lower
Satisfied 
Dissatisfied  
72
24
61
34
 Middle
Satisfied 
Dissatisfied 
68
27
68
27
 Upper Middle/Rich
Satisfied 
Dissatisfied
68
29
67
29

Modi's promise of Achhe Din

AmongModi has failed to bring "Achhe Din"
Overall49
Poor Voters58
Upper Middle/Rich Voters41

Was price rise a reason for the BJP's defeat?

In the last 7-8 months, prices of food itemsIn Per Cent
Increased56
Remained the same24
Decreased17

Opinion on price rise according to class

ClassPrices of food items have increased in the last 7-8 months
Poor72
Lower60
Middle52
Upper Middle/Rich46

Decision to bring in Kiran Bedi

Among"BJP ignored other party leaders by declaring Bedi as the CM candidate"
Overall63
Traditional BJP supporters60

All figures in per cent. 

Last updated: February 14, 2015 | 14:41
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