Trump's Iran decision could have a damaging impact on Indian economy
US President Donald Trump has been chafing to undo the nuclear deal with Iran — the JCPOA — ever since he took office. He held back until now because, Russia and China apart, his European allies were not in favour, the IAEA has been reporting Iran’s full compliance with the deal and more sober voices in his own administration including defence secretary James Mattis and former secretary of state Rex Tillerson have not supported this step.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the pro-Israeli lobby in the US have been long pressing Trump to disown the deal. The US Congress has been against it ab initio. As Trump has become politically more vulnerable at home because of Russia-related issues and other scandals, he has succumbed to Congressional and other pressures.
Trump’s reasons for abandoning the JCPOA are contrived and counter-factual. He claims that Iran is cheating and is engaged in developing nuclear weapon capability but has not offered any supportive evidence.
Regional role
Netanyahu’s revelations on April 30 about Iran’s secret nuclear programme based on intelligence sources also do not prove that Tehran has violated the JCPOA after its conclusion. French President Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Angela Merkel had visited Washington before May 12 to persuade Trump not to renege on the deal but to no avail.
The JSPOA did not cover Iran’s missile development programme and therefore for Trump to give this as another reason to disown it has little merit. Iran’s regional role that is seen as undermining Western interests, as well as those of its allies in the area, figured in the negotiations leading to the JCPOA, but Iran strenuously opposed the extension of the accord to non-nuclear matters.
Iran sees itself as a regional power, and while prepared to accept strict limits on its nuclear ambitions it was, and is, vehemently opposed to any constraints on its regional role.
Arguably, if the US and Europe as non-regional powers can legitimately claim a role in West Asia to protect their interests and so can the Arab countries, they cannot seek to circumscribe Iran’s regional role. Iran’s role in Syria is as legitimate as that of other countries.
Iran is a part of the West Asian region, the opportunity for it to increase its role there was, ironically, facilitated by America’s destruction of Saddam Hussein’s regime and its replacement by Shia majority rule, which radically changed the political equation between Iran and Iraq. Iran has traditionally had very close economic ties with the UAE and good political understanding with Oman.
The Arab world has substantial Shia populations and this creates bonds between them and Iran which cannot be suppressed. The historical antagonism between Shias and Sunnis and between the Persians and the Arabs affects the political and security situation in the region, which it did even when the Shah ruled Iran.
It would be worth recalling that at the time of the Shah, relations between Iran and Israel were close. If Iran is accused of inciting the Shias in the Arab countries, or of supporting the Houthis in Yemen, Iran could accuse Saudi Arabia of forging anti-Iranian understandings with Israel, not to mention US interventions in the region against Iran, including support for Saudi Arabia.
Source of terrorism
Trump has accused Iran of being the principal source of terrorism, which might make political sense in the context of Iran’s support for the Hezbollah in Lebanon and alleged involvement with Hamas.
Indeed, Iran’s unrestrained hostility against Israel and the leadership position it has appropriated on the Palestinian cause weaken its diplomatic position at the international level when key Arab countries have reached different levels of accommodation with Israel and have ceased questioning its right to exist. Iran is failing to recognise that its excessive belligerence towards Israel only strengthens the arguments against its conduct in the region.
If it could make a costly compromise over its nuclear ambitions for pragmatic reasons, its obstinacy on Israel is that much an anomaly. Nevertheless, to call it the biggest supporter of terrorism flies in the face of reality. Iran has actually indirectly cooperated with the US to decimate the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
Moreover, within the region and internationally, including the Taliban and the Haqqani group in Afghanistan, not to mention the Al Qaeda, Boko Haram or Al Shabab it is the Sunni groups that are involved in terrorism inspired by Wahhabism or Salafism originating in Saudi Arabia.
Atlantic rift
Trump’s decision is creating a rift between the US and Europe over the extraterritorial application of the American sanction law on its companies engaged in business with Iran, besides infringing European sovereignty and independence. Europe is considering legislation that would protect its companies from US retribution.
Iran is counting on the European countries to adhere to the JCPOA to enable it to abide by it. If Europe buckles under mounting US pressure and Iran walks out of the deal, the stage would be set for a military conflict that would be disastrous for all.
India will be expected to cut down its oil purchases from Iran; its projects in Iran, including Chabahar, could get stalled. Already oil prices have shot up, with damaging consequences for the Indian economy. In an actual conflict situation, our equities in the Gulf region as a whole would be threatened. Trump’s decision is most ill-advised and inordinately dictated by US domestic politics. It disregards the larger interests of the international community as a whole.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)