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Will Modi be able to handle Trump?

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Ajey Lele
Ajey LeleJun 20, 2017 | 14:53

Will Modi be able to handle Trump?

Ever since he took over as US president, the behaviour of Donald Trump has been erratic and un-statesman like. He has presented himself as a hollow and arrogant leader. Probably because of the unfriendly US media, he is coming out more as a combative leader who is mostly brushing off his critics. 

Now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to meet Trump in the last week of June 2017 and it would be of interest to see what such a meeting would lead to in reality.     

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Modi had a good rapport with the earlier political dispensation in the US. His equation with Barack Obama was both about friendship as well as smart politics and he had a record number of eight meetings with the former US president.

The Indian PM travelled to the US three times and Obama made a historic trip to India to be the chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations in 2015. Also, this relationship was in the backdrop of the earlier excellent bond between Obama and former PM Manmohan Singh. 

For Modi the job was cut out - he only had to take this relationship to a higher level. He did that successfully and India-US ties have gained strength in the last three years. Now the question is, will this momentum continue in the Trump administration?

Here the real challenge for Modi is threefold: one, Trump is a most unpredictable leader; two, by and large he is trying to undo what was done by the earlier Obama administration and three, Trump has made a few negative statements (he probably has a negative image of India) about the country after coming to power, hinting that India is responsible for loss of jobs for some in the US and also that India is one of the biggest environmental polluters in the world.     

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It is going to be a test for Modi’s diplomatic skills when he visits the US on June 25 and 26, 2017. Officially, the agenda appears to be to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral ties to "advance on common priorities: fight terrorism, promote economic growth and reforms, and expand security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region".

Obama had termed India-US ties as the ”defining partnership of the 21st century”. The upcoming Modi visit to the US would decide whether it remains a defining partnership or not.

For India, it is important to analyse the pattern of Trump’s behaviour in the last six months. It appears that strategic and security arguments or arguments relating to the historical relationship among the two largest democracies in the world or of India’s position in Asia and her capability to counter-balance China are not likely to cut much ice with Trump.

He is found analysing most of the bilateral relationship with the economic prism and it is important for India to present an economic argument.

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Barack Obama had termed India-US ties as the "defining partnership of the 21st century”. Photo: Reuters

US-India trade has grown six-fold since 2000, from $19 billion to $115 billion in 2016. It is not in the interest of the US to dilute this relationship and the Trump administration understands that. Hence, trade is one card which should be played very effectively by team Modi.

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Owing to the Trump administration’s tightening of H-1B visa rules, India foresees some problems in the future. It is important for India to explain to Trump that the presence of India’s IT workers is helping boost the US economy.

Also, it is important to highlight how India’s programmes like Make in India and some others could attract US investment in India, and would help not only the US economy but the job market there too. If the Americans are losing some jobs to the Indian IT professional, owing to India’s trade and investment policies, new jobs are also getting created for US citizens.

In the arena of defence and security, the US industry has benefited owing to major defence purchases by India in recent times, and this would continue with some more orders in the future. Unfortunately, all these years, successive US administrations have played only lip service when it comes to transferring defence-related technology to India.

Till date no “core” technologies have been shared with India. It needs to be emphasised that various existing high technology initiatives have no meaning if such technology transfer is not taking place.

Today, India is in position to purchase such technologies and this would boost the US economy. India could raise the entry to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) but Trump has not much of pull on China. It is unlikely that to assist the dying US nuclear industry China would change their position. 

The last six months of Trump rule have shown that providing aid to foreign countries is what he hates the most. India’s concerns with Pakistan and terrorism should be presented with the logic that “how much amount of money the US has invested in Pakistan for all these years and what has it got in return”. 

Pakistan was once the third-largest recipient of US foreign assistance but this is not going to be the case any longer and the current US administration has presented a defence bill that assures $900 million aid to Pakistan (for fiscal year 2017), much lesser than what they used to get earlier.

There is a need for India to emphasise that US aiding Pakistan for all these years has proved counterproductive and actually burdened the US treasury.  

Owing to his background and attitude, it appears that Trump is a “pakka baniya” and should be dealt with accordingly.

Last updated: June 21, 2017 | 12:59
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