Why India's Afghanistan challenges are only growing
New Delhi cannot forever continue to rely on the benevolence of others.
Kidnapping of seven Indian engineers in Afghanistan along with their Afghan driver who worked for the Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat company that operates a power station in northern Baghlan has once again brought to the fore the worsening security situation in that country, but also how precarious Indian involvement in the nation is becoming. Though no group has claimed responsibility for these kidnappings, the local Afghan leadership has put the blame on the Taliban. The Afghan government has assured New Delhi that it would leave no stone unturned to protect and free the Indian engineers.
Terror rising
Security situation in Afghanistan has been highly volatile in recent weeks. Just recently, more than 50 people died in a coordinated double suicide bombing in Kabul and a shooting in the eastern Khost province. Those killed included 10 journalists. The Taliban launched their 2018 spring offensive last week even as the Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for recent bombings, including attack on a voter registration centre, which killed 60 people.
The Taliban and the ISIS are competing with each other and, in the process, the level of destruction and mayhem is reaching the extreme. While both the Taliban and the ISIS want to overthrow the US-backed Afghan government and impose strict Islamic rule, the Taliban’s focus has largely been government officials and security forces, even as the ISIS has been targeting civilians from Afghanistan’s Shia-Hazara minority, who it views as apostates.
The Afghan state’s capacity is under siege and the insurgents are doing all they can to underscore its growing vulnerabilities. Regular attacks on government ministries and organisers of October’s parliamentary and district elections underscore the ability of the insurgents to take on the government forces at a time and place of their choosing. As it is, less than 60 per cent of Afghanistan is being controlled by the government forces, according to various estimates. As per the latest report of Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, the Afghan army and police together have 36,000 fewer personnel today than they did last year as a result of desertions and casualties.
Recognising its limitations, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani made one last-ditch effort in February to restart the peace process by offering to recognise the Taliban as a legitimate political group. He suggested that he was willing to consider a ceasefire and a release of prisoners, including inclusive elections, and in return, the Taliban would have to recognise the Afghan government and respect the rule of law.
But the Taliban have so far not considered it important enough. Instead they want direct talks with the US even as the Trump administration is struggling to come up with a coherent policy.
Old phenomenon
US President Donald Trump’s heart is clearly not in the Afghan war, but his administration bought into the arguments of Gen John Nicholson, the US commander in Afghanistan, leading to a deployment of an additional 3,000 troops, taking the total of US forces in Afghanistan to about 14,000. The security situation on the ground, however, continues to be shaped by a logic of its own.
Kidnaps in Afghanistan are not a new phenomenon. Last year, a Finnish aid worker was kidnapped from a Kabul guest house and released some months later. Before that in 2011, 12 Iranian and Afghan engineers were kidnapped while working on a road project in western Afghanistan. And Indians and Indian interests have been regular targets as well. As early as in 2003, two Indian engineers were abducted while assault on Indian outposts has continued unabated. The Indian consulate in Kabul was attacked in 2008 by a suicide bomber, resulting in the loss of lives of 55 people and wounding hundreds. This was followed by another attack on the Indian Embassy a year later and then, in 2010, a guest house frequented by Indians was targeted, killing several doctors.
The challenges
There more than 150 Indian engineers and technical experts working in Afghanistan on major infrastructure projects and their protection has been a matter of concern for New Delhi. Yet India’s engagement with Kabul has remained robust despite these challenges. Last year, India and Afghanistan inaugurated two air-corridors to boost connectivity and it has resulted in significant increase trade volumes. As part of a next-generation “New Development Partnership”, India is now implementing 116 new “high impact” development projects in 31 provinces of Afghanistan. India has given four military helicopters to Afghanistan and is imparting training to Afghan security personnel. It remains open to extending further assistance to bolster the armed forces of Afghanistan, though overall New Delhi’s approach on military matters remains one of caution.
India’s engagement in Afghanistan is crucial for the Afghan state’s long-term viability and India has done well to continue its engagement despite facing the wrath of its adversaries. But, New Delhi will also have to figure out a way of protecting its nationals and other assets at a time when the Afghan security situation is getting worse by the day. The challenges for India are only going to grow and New Delhi cannot forever continue to rely on the benevolence of others.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)