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Math of alliance politics – What Karnataka by-polls tell us about advantage Congress

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Arindam De
Arindam DeNov 18, 2018 | 15:04

Math of alliance politics – What Karnataka by-polls tell us about advantage Congress

The wins have shown that Congress in a tie-up with strong regional parties can be a force to reckon with.

Elections can be won even if a party gets its math wrong, but it is a mighty tough job. Mere calculations don’t win you elections — it has to be backed up by political sense and awareness of the situation on ground. 

The Karnataka by-poll results have encouraging signs for Congress. Only signs. However, in the run-up to the General Elections, such signals are invaluable. The Congress-JD(S) combine bagged two Assembly and two Lok Sabha seats, making it 4 in their favour against BJP’s 1. The result reflects how a pre-poll alliance during the Assembly elections could have probably turned out to be.

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The Conress-JD(S) won four seats comfortably, and lost another to a slim margin.
The Conress-JD(S) won four seats comfortably, and lost the fifth by a slimmer margin. (Photo: PTI)

The keywords here are maturity and flexibility. Maturity — in the ability to play second fiddle to strong, like-minded regional players — and flexibility — the ability of Congress to sit down and strike separate, not necessarily different, deals with various regional parties, who have their own local agenda and vote bank.

Regardless of the success or failure of the proposed non-BJP, non-Congress front in uniting, the Congress must try and act as the gel that binds these parties together. For, each of these parties, in the 2019 General Elections, could bring a substantial number of seats to the negotiation table.

Yes, you may term such tie-ups opportunistic, but that is what they are intended to be. Because as far as organisational strength and cadre base are concerned, the Congress cannot even compare itself with the election machinery of the BJP, let alone take on the entire NDA combine, which should see the addition of a few potent partners ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. 

The only hope, then, is the local strength of regional parties.

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Karnataka provided just a glimpse of how things could turn out — a score of 4-1, the fortress of Ballary breached, not allowing BJP to wrest any seat from the Congress-JD(S) strongholds.

If you take a look at the voting patterns, the INC-JD(S) combine won with resounding margins, and in the seat they lost, the combine was able to bring down the margin of victory substantially. 

These two are set to meet soon — the meting could be crucial.
These two are set to meet soon — the meeting could be crucial. (Photo: ANI/file)

The verdict could also be touted as a vote of confidence on the coalition government in the state. A bit of political maturity would have saved the political drama that Karnataka saw post polls, and the coalition would have been in a far more comfortable position.

The BJP has time and again targeted the “weak” coalition, but so far seems unable to have convinced the voters about it. Hopefully, the ruling coalition in the state keeps things simple and continues preparations for the General Elections.

Beyond Karnataka, there has been some movement towards stitching up anti-BJP fronts in states like Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. The AP CM Chandrababu Naidu has been travelling across the country to engage opposition leaders. Although, how potent would Chandrababu prove to be in Andhra Pradesh or as a deal maker, remains to be seen. As things stand, hectic parleys have resulted in some positive bytes, but little else.

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Early next week, the Opposition leaders would meet in Delhi. Chandrababu will meet Mamata Banerjee separately before the proposed opposition unity meeting. The outcome could be crucial.

Although Congress has long lost the political primacy it was used to in national politics, it can still work as a fulcrum, a pivot. Provided, it can engage and adapt.

In Chhattisgarh, Ajit Jogi and Mayawati have chosen to walk away from the Congress
In Chhattisgarh, Ajit Jogi and Mayawati chose to walk away from the Congress. (Photo: PTI/file)

It will not be all smooth sailing. BSP chief Mayawati, for example, has cried off a coalition in the ongoing state Assembly elections. That may have damaging repercussions for Congress, at least in Chhattisgarh. Whether a SP-BSP tie up will take place in Uttar Pradesh is still unclear. What is clear is that such a coalition would substantially increase their seat tally. Substantially — but not dramatically. That is because even socialist parties rely on the politics of caste and while the BSP vote may transfer to the SP, it may not happen as smoothly the other way round.

Then there is the looming Ram Mandir issue. No political party in India will position itself against Lord Ram.

For anything to click, the Congress must hope that it scores a 3-2 in the ongoing Assembly elections — at least A 2-1 in the big three, where the anti-incumbency factor favours the party.

Unless that happens, the Congress will find it extremely difficult to convince people or allies that it is worth it.

Last updated: November 18, 2018 | 15:04
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