dailyO
Politics

Battle for Gujarat: Why his home state will be a litmus test for Narendra Modi’s popularity

Advertisement
DailyBite
DailyBiteApr 23, 2019 | 16:01

Battle for Gujarat: Why his home state will be a litmus test for Narendra Modi’s popularity

While the BJP has a huge advantage in Gujarat, namely, Narendra Modi, the Congress is confident of winning seats after its improved performance in the 2017 Assembly polls.

All eyes are on Gujarat as son of the soil Narendra Modi seeks a second term for the country’s most powerful chair. In 2014, Gujarat had overwhelmingly voted in favour of Modi, giving the BJP all 26 Lok Sabha seats. The party is aiming for a repeat of the same success with its ‘Abki baar, phir Modi Sarkar’ slogan.

Modi, however, is aiming higher than 26 seats. “Giving us 26 seats is not enough — ensure maximum opposition candidates lose deposits,” said Modi at a rally in Gujarat’s Sabarkantha.

Advertisement

While the BJP has a huge advantage in Gujarat, the Congress too is confident of improving its tally after its performance in the 2017 Assembly elections.

Despite a huge part of Gujarat being impressed with Modi and fully backing him over issues of muscular nationalism and his stand against corruption, there are parts of the state where farm distress and water scarcity are issues that matter. The impact of these issues was seen very clearly in the 2017 Assembly elections.

In 2014, the BJP had polled an impressive vote share of 59.1% against Congress's 32.9%, winning all 26 seats — in the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP’s vote share fell to 49.1% while Congress’ rose to 41.4%.

2014_042319021137.jpg

2017_042319021149.jpg

Does that mean the BJP could be in for some losses in Gujarat on May 23?

Not really.

The three leaders — Patidar leader Hardik Patel, Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor — who whipped up a caste churn in Gujarat that ensured gains for the Congress are now finding their respective roles reduced.

Advertisement

While Alpesh has quit the Congress, Hardik has been barred from contesting elections owing to his conviction in a rioting case. Mevani, on the other hand, is looking to stretch his base beyond Gujarat.

The BJP has always been strong in the state. In 1998, the BJP got 19 of the 26 seats while in 1999, it won 20. Post-Godhra and the Gujarat riots of 2002, the BJP got reduced to 14 seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls while the Congress won 12. In 2009, post-delimitation, the BJP won 15 seats. All this, while Modi continued to get re-elected in the Assembly elections.

The 2014 Lok Sabha election was a watershed when Gujaratis whole-heartedly backed Modi for the PM’s chair.

But the Congress has worked hard in Gujarat to build on the gains made in the 2017 polls. However, it is important to remember that 2017 was also an election when Modi was not in the running for the chief minister’s chair.

In 2019, will the people of Gujarat be voting for Modi as Prime Minister? Or will local concerns decide the BJP’s fate in the state — and also provide a litmus test for Modi’s popularity? This question makes the Gujarat contest even more fascinating.

Advertisement

Last updated: April 23, 2019 | 16:01
IN THIS STORY
Please log in
I agree with DailyO's privacy policy