How Nitish-Manjhi clash has plunged Bihar into instability

Sacked by his party Janata Dal United (JD-U) for his refusal to step down, Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi is still hanging on to his chair, though the legislature party he claims to head has already elected a new leader in Nitish Kumar.

An undeterred Manjhi, who reached Patna on Monday after attending the Niti Ayog meeting in New Delhi, once again dared Nitish Kumar for a trial of strength on the floor of the House, while launching a scathing attack on his predecessor who had installed him in the chair.

As the crisis deepened in JD-U, Nitish Kumar on Monday has formally staked claim for the chief minister's post with his party advising Governor Keshari Nath Tripathi, to invite him within 48 hours to take-charge. Flanked by Lalu Prasad and Sharad Yadav, Nitish met Governor Tripathi and promised to take the MLAs to Delhi and parade them before the President, if his claims are not entertained by Patna Raj Bhawan. Though, Nitish Kumar's claims seem more credible than Manjhi's, as 97 of JD-U's 111 MLAs were present in the meeting that elected him as JD-U's new legislature party leader on February 7, Governor Keshari Nath Tripathi is unlikely to invite him for forming a government without giving Manjhi an opportunity to prove his majority in the House in accordance with the precedent set by the Supreme Court judgment in the SR Bommai case to adjudicate legislative crises. Tripathi, meanwhile, has already accepted resignations of 20 ministers loyal to Nitish Kumar.

Manjhi, who reached Patna on Monday, is seeking time till February 20 to prove his majority. The legislature session of Bihar Assembly is scheduled on February 20 and Manjhi has said he would seek a trust vote. The chief minister's entire focus seems to be on splitting the JD-U by offering willing fence-sitters the carrot of ministerial berths.

While promising to expand his cabinet, Manjhi has expressed his willingness to induct two deputy CMs, including one from the minority community-an offer he believe many in the RJD and JD-U may find irresistible .With the carrot, Manjhi is also dangling the stick of house dissolution. He is said to have the support of 14 of the 111 MLAs of the JD-U, who did not attend the legislature party meeting that elected Nitish. But Manjhi, who is hopeful about getting support from the 87-member BJP, needs to win over at least 17 more MLAs to make the 87-MLA saffron party interested in him. With the effective strength of Bihar's 243-member House pegged at 233, Manjhi requires the magic figure of 117 to survive. The Nitish group in the JDU has claimed the support of 130 MLAs. A list of 130 MLAs, which includes lawmakers from Congress and RJD, in favour of Nitish Kumar has already been submitted to the Governor's Secretariat on Sunday. Now, Governor Tripathi may give Manjhi a deadline to prove his majority before assessing Nitish Kumar's claims for his return as Bihar chief minister.

Meanwhile, Manjhi is also aggressively playing his "Mahadalit" card -a community with 15 per cent votes in Bihar - while claiming that his removal was an "insult" at a time when he was only fighting for the "dignity" of the Dalits, who have remained marginalised in politics.

Since the state's bifurcation that created Jharkhand in November 2000, Bihar has largely witnessed robust governments, first by Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD and then by Nitish Kumar. Barring a phase in 2005 when the elected Bihar assembly was dissolved and second assembly elections were held within a year, the state has seen strong governments and little dissidence. This was also the period when Jharkhand suffered political crises of the worse kind as none of the nine governments in the state could have a full term in office. Now, when Jharkhand for the first time has elected a majority government, Bihar seems to have gone the Jharkhand way.