Why ruling Pakistan is going to be fraught with challenges for Imran Khan
Pakistan general elections held on July 25 were hugely disputed. Except for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), all other parties rejected the election results alleging that polls were marred by both pre-poll engineering and post-poll rigging.
Certain steps taken by the Pakistani military establishment vitiated the atmosphere even before polling was held. A media gag and judicial compromise were used against the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). The Army ensured that both Nawaz Sharif and his daughter, Maryam, remain out of power corridors, even if PMLN comes to power with a fractured mandate.
It is thus clear that PMLN and other parties did not get a level playing field to contest the elections.
Pre-poll engineering included the PTI forging new alliances such as a tie-up with the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) in Sindh and Baluchistan Awami Party (BAP) in Baluchistan.
Also, religious parties such as Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) and Milli Muslim League (MML) were propped up to divide the vote bank.
Nevertheless, Pakistan saw its second consecutive democratic transition of power. People did come out to vote amid a pro-Imran Khan wave in the country.
Khan, on his part, did manage to create a narrative against corruption. He promised a welfare state, lower taxes and pro-people government. By winning a majority of the seats, the PTI led by the ex-cricketer is set to form a government on August 18, as Khan takes oath of office.
But the support of regional parties that has ensured Khan becomes Prime Minister will always keep the PTI on the edge.
The PTI government led by Khan will face a daunting task of delivering what he promised during elections and his conciliatory speech after winning a majority of the National Assembly seats.
Economy
Pakistan's economy is in deep trouble. Khan has grudgingly acknowledged that the new government needs to seek external help to maintain the foreign exchange reserves.
Pakistan's trade deficit rose to around $37.6 billion in 2017-18 from $32.5 billion in 2016-17. It is likely to go further up in the next fiscal year. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, the deficit will reach $45 billion in the fiscal year 2022-23.
This fiscal imbalance has more to do with the higher import bills. Over the years Pakistan imported a lot, including small machinery products for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
In the past, the PTI has lambasted the previous governments for relying on external donors, especially going to IMF every now and then. However, the PTI has no choice but to go to the IMF itself.
But before it could approach the IMF, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo warned that any potential IMF bailout for Pakistan's new government should not provide funds to pay off Chinese lenders.
The US' position on IMF loan for Pakistan needs to be seen in the larger geopolitical context and the great power tussle going on in the region.
The PTI's election promise to cut taxes will only further burden the flagging economy.
The party's 90-day plan to put the economy on track is going to be a daunting task.
The Saudi-backed Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) has agreed to lend $4 billion in loans to Pakistan. But there are no free lunches in international relations. These loans will come with some policy implications for the PTI government. The loan will not allow Khan to take decisions freely with regards to Iran.
Internal security
Pakistan has achieved some tactical success against terrorism within the country with 2018 seeing the lowest number of terror-related incidents and casualties. But recent attacks during elections claimed by both Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and The Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), is a grim reminder that terrorists still have the potential to hit at will.
The much-hyped National Action Plan (NAP) that was framed by the last government after the Army Public School attack has only been partially implemented. The last government did try to ban, albeit selectively, some sectarian outfits and few were put under the fourth schedule of the anti-terrorism act.
But representatives of most of these organisations have been freed and allowed to contest elections.
Will Imran Khan's government take on these outfits and implement NAP in its true spirit?
One will have to wait and watch and see how Khan tackles the internal security challenge.
Foreign policy
Imran Khan's biggest challenge will come in the form of managing and framing foreign policy. Traditionally, it has been seen that in Pakistan it is the army that controls foreign policy. In his victory speech, Khan said he wanted to have good relations with Afghanistan and India. He wanted to turn Pakistan into a transit trade hub and reap the benefits of the geography but the question is will the army allow him to do that?
#BattleForPakistanWe are always ready to improve our relations with India: @ImranKhanPTI Watch #TTP live: https://t.co/4fqxBVUizL pic.twitter.com/JCCyC1DmlJ
— India Today (@IndiaToday) July 26, 2018
His foremost challenge would come in the form of how he manages its relations with the army. Without getting the army on his side - and that looks impossible - it is unlikely for Khan to ensure Islamabad does not create trouble in Afghanistan.
With India, he has to walk on a tightrope. He would be cautioned by the army to walk slowly in mending fences with India. Even though Khan may have good intention vis-à-vis India, he will be faced with the tough task of getting the army to agree.
The other main foreign policy challenge would be to maintain neutrality in the Middle East. In the past, PTI has been seen as the party that wants to have good relations with Iran. It wants to enhance trade and diplomatic relations with Tehran but its biggest challenge would be how it manages relations with Saudi Arabia and its allies in the region.
Pakistan's Tehran policy had always been seen through the prism of its relations with Saudi Arabia. The country maintained minimum relations with Iran so that the Saudis are not antagonised.
The US-Pakistan relations have nosedived in the recent past. The PTI and Khan have been highly critical of the US and its Afghan war. In the past, Khan has vehemently opposed the US drone strikes in the FATA area of Pakistan.
With Donald Trump administration's aggressive approach towards Pakistan, Khan will find it relatively easier to justify his rhetoric. The issue would be with the army. The Pakistan army would still like to maintain a decent relationship with the US. Trump would like Khan to bring Taliban on the table by putting pressure on them. For that to happen, Khan needs to bring a paradigmatic shift in Pakistan's foreign policy.
But it is easier said than done.