Rex Tillerson visit: Why India must not play into US hands to counter China
An interesting trilateral strategic series is being played among the United States (the sole superpower), China (the wannabe superpower) and India (an aspiring superpower despite its plethora of issues).
But India must pursue a truly independent foreign policy which is rooted to its own national interests, rather than catering to interests of foreign powers.
Top US officials have said many "positive" things ahead of the India visit of US secretary of state Rex Tillerson like enlarging India's strategic footprints in Afghanistan, Tillerson during his Afghanistan stopover praising India for its "generous contribution" to construction of Salma Dam and Afghan Parliament, and the Trump administration conveying New Delhi its willingness to sell F16 and F18 fighter jets to India.
It has almost coincided with the deliberations of the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which elevated President Xi Jinping to the status of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. And Xi talked of upholding the principles of Panchsheel with neighbours.
The sweet tones of the American sounds need to be weighed against the reality of US President Donald Trump’s proneness to do U-turns, saying things he does not mean, and thereby often causing dismay and distrust.
See a classic example of Trump's U-turn. Eleven months ago, in December 2016, he had showered praise on Pakistan, Pakistani people and the then prime minister Nawaz Sharif by describing Pakistan “fantastic country, fantastic place of fantastic people” and calling Nawaz Sharif a “terrific guy”.
Two months ago, in August, Trump stunned everyone by unusually harsh remarks against Pakistan wherein he said: “Pakistan has also sheltered the same organisations that try every single day to kill our people... We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting. But that will have to change, and that will change immediately."
He also threatened to slash aid to Pakistan as punishment for giving sanctuary to the Taliban and other Islamist militant groups operating in Afghanistan. On October 12, Trump doled out praise on Pakistan after that country’s help in securing release of an American woman and her family from terrorists, remarking: “This is a positive moment for our country's relationship with Pakistan. The Pakistani government's cooperation is a sign that it is honouring America's wishes for it to do more to provide security in the region.”
All this shows transactional style of diplomacy of Trump. India’s desire to deal with third countries on its own terms may be restricted if the American embrace becomes more tight. This is because an unduly sharp Indian tilt in favour of the US, against a country like China and at expense of India’s non-aligned status would put India in the same league, where Pakistan used to be for decades and make India a satellite of America.
India is not in a position, as the US would want, to act as an effective counter to China’s military-cum-economic might, given the fact that the Chinese economy is ahead of India. China's economy is four times larger than that of India’s. While the Indian GDP is close to $1.5 trillion, the Chinese GDP is $7 trillion.
This means that even if China grows at the rate of a meagre 1.5 per cent and India grows at a rate of 7 per cent, the Chinese economy would have added the same amount in output as the Indian economy would have. This puts in perspective the India-China comparison. And this much larger Chinese economy in comparison to India gives China enormous diplomatic and strategic leverage over India.
Most Indians would probably say it will be unwise for India to take up that role. Why? Here’s the one-line answer: it makes far better strategic sense to keep your backyard tension-free (read China) rather than having ambitious and fanciful relationships with far-off friends (read the US).
India’s security will continue to be under threat from the Dragon in the north unless both countries alter their stand on the border dispute, largely in favour of the Chinese claim. China’s fast-rising profile in the world is based on the triumvirate of large and strong economy, political heft and military muscle.
An ambitious and aggressive China does not want to see India stand up to it as an equal. The multi-dimensional partnership that China and Pakistan have forged is clearly designed to check the growth of India. China seems to be encouraging Pakistan to keep India almost permanently embroiled in low-intensity, unconventional war. China has positioned itself as an unwelcome factor in improving India-Pakistan relations. For example, China has time and again offered to broker peace between India and Pakistan, a big no-no for India as New Delhi doesn’t brook any middlemen. Anything that the Chinese leaders say will not change this situation.
India will be mistaken if it takes its eyes off the US policy on China and Pakistan because of security concerns. The US may say thousands of bad things about Pakistan but at the end of the day, it reaches out to Pakistan in its perceived interests and matters relating to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Pakistan's geographical location is the key factor that makes it virtually impossible for the Americans to carry out their routine operations in Afghanistan without the help and cooperation of Pakistan. So much so, even maintenance of American logistical supplies to their military assets in Afghanistan are Pakistan-locked.
The US will not do anything that can neutralise the China-Pakistan nexus. The talk of US expecting India to "keep an eye" on Pakistan, as said by Nikki Haley, US permanent representative at the UN, does not mean much as long as the US believes that it cannot do without Pakistan to meet its goals in Afghanistan and the region beyond. India cannot be lax about its security concerns merely to be seen as a "reliable" US friend or ally.
At the same time, India cannot believe the Chinese when they rhetorically talk of peace and friendship while in the same breath asserting their arbitrary border claims.
It goes without saying that India has to have good relations with its neighbours, particularly China and Pakistan. But the route to that objective will have to be set by India without being influenced by Washington’s praise or deliberations at the Chinese Congress.
There is already some anxiety in India about the US move to re-impose sanctions on Iran. India cannot follow the US in talking tough to Myanmar about the Rohingya refugee crisis.
Ties with both Iran and Myanmar are very important to India. Apart from the oil supply, Iran has promised to be a partner in India’s bid to open a land-cum-sea route to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. Antagonising Myanmar will ensure that India allows deeper Chinese penetration into that Southeast Asian nation with which India has long and historical ties.
Since it is always wise to have a powerful friend, India cannot let ties with the US plummet. But a perennially hostile China will not be in India’s interest either. Indian diplomacy can perhaps do the balancing act in the relationship with the two most powerful countries in the world. But the temptation of falling for flattery from one or both countries can derail that process.
Washington has in a subtle way brought back the "hyphen" in its relations with India and Pakistan. We may decry that but the more useful thing to do will be to proceed without being unduly worried about it, unless a clear security threat emerges out of it.